Can the United States reach a first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002? Since defeating fierce rivals Mexico dos a cero at this stage 24 years ago, the U.S. have gone no further than the round of 16, dumped out by Ghana, Belgium and the Netherlands since. Well, following Wednesday’s 2-0 victory over Bosnia a Herzegovina in the San Francisco Bay Area, Mauricio Pochettino’s team believe they can keep this fairytale run going.

In their way on Monday night in Seattle is Belgium, and there are reasons for pessimism among the U.S. fan base. Folarin Balogun, scorer of three goals this summer, is available, despite his red card for a challenge on Tarik Muharemović, which it is pretty universally agreed to have been harsh. Meanwhile, exactly 100 days ago in a March friendly, Belgium demolished this same U.S. team 5-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, scoring three times during a 15-minute spree. Based on that result, most would make the Red Devils firm favorites for victory at Lumen Field. But here’s why that is not necessarily the case.

Belgium’s miserable recent major tournament record

The days of Belgium’s golden generation are very much in the rearview mirror, reaching the World Cup semifinals in 2018 and being genuine contenders to win major trophies at that time. Now, they are more the olden generation: So far this summer, Rudi Garcia’s side were held to underwhelming draws by both Egypt and Iran, before an emphatic victory over a low-quality New Zealand. The Red Devils then, somehow, beat Senegal in the last 32, scoring twice in the final four minutes after an abject performance and thereby forcing extra time before winning it from the penalty spot right at the death.

Overall, following early exits in Qatar and at Euro 2024, this was just their fourth victory across their last 12 major-tournament matches.

Belgium’s last 12 matches at World Cups and Euros

Belgium have not won back-to-back major-tournament matches, in 90 minutes, since victories at Euro 2020 over Russia, Denmark, Finland and Portugal before being ousted by eventual winners Italy. During the subsequent period, the Red Devils have been beaten by worse teams than the USMNT, (looking at you, Slovakia), regularly drawing with mid-tier teams too.

However, Belgium’s struggles against elite-level opposition are not solely confined to major competitions.

Belgium results vs. teams in the FIFA rankings’ top 20 (July 2021-present)

The United States are currently ranked 16th by FIFA, with Belgium ninth, but the gap between the two teams may not be as large as that suggests. Garcia’s side have lacked cohesion or any semblance of an attacking plan at this World Cup. He bafflingly took off both Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku with his team 2-0 down against Senegal, taking something of a victory lap at full time, but it would be generous to say it was his genius that saw them get back into that match.

Note: Friendly internationals are not included.

Wednesday’s win over Senegal ended a sequence of 14 successive competitive internationals, against teams in the top 20 of the FIFA rankings, that Belgium have failed to win. Of these 14, the Red Devils have lost ten of them, dating back to beating Portugal during Euro 2020 at the Cartuja in Seville just over five years ago.

Center-forward Romelu Lukaku is clearly lacking fitness, and understandably so given that he played just 64 minutes for Napoli last season. Make no mistake about it, Belgium do boast plenty of world-class attacking talents. We’ve already mentioned Doku and De Bruyne, but it’s also worth highlighting Leandro Trossard, who has created the most chances (16) of any player at this tournament.

Defensively though, this side is vulnerable. The 23-year-old center-back Nathan Ngoy was sent off against Iran for a last man challenge, caught out in a high line; is that something Balogun could take advantage of? Ngoy has not started since, but Brandon Mechele alongside Arthur Theate is not the elite-level CB pairing this team once had in their heyday.

Note: Statistics courtesy of SofaScore and FotMob.

Thus, this last-16 clash on Monday night in the Pacific Northwest could go either way — but, backed by their home support in Seattle, the U.S. have to believe they can prevail.

Belgium predicted lineup vs. USMNT

• Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
• Defenders: Timothy Castagne, Brandon Mechele, Arthur Theate, Maxim De Cuyper
• Midfielders: Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, Kevin De Bruyne
• Attackers: Leandro Trossard, Romelu Lukaku, Jérémy Doku

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