June 18 (Reuters) – A recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and oil production following the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal will take time, potentially several months, analysts at two banks said.
Shipments through the strait, through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes, were disrupted during the Iran conflict, sending oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose to as much as $126 a barrel in April, a four-year high.
Goldman Sachs said it expects Middle East Gulf exports to normalise to pre-war levels by the end of July, and crude production to recover by October.
While ship availability is not a binding constraint on exports, cautiousness by shipowners could limit them, it said.
“We see shippers’ risk aversion as a potential constraint on the flows, along with Iran’s geopolitical goals over the upcoming 60-day nuclear deal negotiations,” the bank said in a June 17 report.
BNP Paribas said that even in a best-case scenario it would take several months for oil flows to normalise, and that this would require producers to bring back about 12 million barrels per day of shut-in production.
Bank of America said clearing mines would likely take months, not days, given logistical challenges, adding that oil markets could remain in deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Oil has dropped since the U.S.-Iran deal, with Brent trading at around $77.16 a barrel as of 1403 GMT on Thursday as the agreement eased concerns over a prolonged supply squeeze.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Alex Lawler and Jan Harvey)
