Arizona Diamondbacks: Luis Gonzalez (224)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Ketel Marte (168)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 9.5/10

Luis Gonzalez will always be an Arizona Diamondbacks legend with his World Series-winner being his defining moment, but his home run record doesn’t feel likely to last for long, with Ketel Marte being less than 60 home runs away from passing him.

Marte has five more years under contract, and he’s averaged 29.7 home runs in the last three seasons. Assuming the Diamondbacks don’t trade him, Marte should break the record in two or three years. How long his record lasts with a guy like Corbin Carroll set to be in Arizona for a long time, though, remains to be seen.

Athletics: Mark McGwire (363)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Nick Kurtz (36)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 5.5/10

It might be unfair to place expectations of this magnitude on the shoulders of a 22-year-old, but Nick Kurtz just hit 36 home runs as a rookie in just 117 games played. He received MVP votes despite not even appearing in his first big league game until late April and despite missing some time due to a hip injury.

This is a ridiculous talent the A’s have. A guy like Brent Rooker is farther along, but he’s also a little less than 300 home runs shy of Mark McGwire as a 31-year-old. I have no doubt that Kurtz will hit 363+ home runs in his career. Will he hit them all in an A’s uniform, though? That’s the only thing giving me some pause. Kurtz seems destined for a massive payday one day in free agency. Perhaps the move to Las Vegas will give John Fisher the incentive to loosen the purse strings enough to keep Kurtz in town long-term. It’ll be nearly impossible for Kurtz to clear 363 home runs before his team control runs out, but with an extension, he should get there.

Atlanta Braves: Hank Aaron (733)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Ronald Acuña Jr. (186)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.25/10

No player has hit more home runs with a single team than Hank Aaron has with the Atlanta Braves. With that in mind, it’ll be virtually impossible for any Braves player to break his mark. Of the Braves currently in the organization, Ronald Acuña Jr. is probably the most likely.

He’s roughly 550 home runs shy of catching Aaron at 28 years of age. With his injury history, I don’t see him coming close, but he certainly has the talent to make things at least somewhat interesting if he can play enough games and the Braves can extend him.

Baltimore Orioles: Cal Ripken Jr. (431)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Gunnar Henderson (86)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 2.5/10

Gunnar Henderson is already knocking on the door of 100 career home runs, yet he’s just 24 years old. It’s certainly possible he clears the 431-home run mark set by Cal Ripken Jr. I just have my doubts about him doing it all in a Baltimore Orioles uniform. Henderson has already reached his first year of arbitration, and he’s only under club control through 2028.

Are the Orioles likely to give him the $300+ million he’s almost certainly going to receive? I’m not so sure. If Henderson does sign a long-term deal with Henderson, the odds of him catching Ripken will increase dramatically. If not, a guy like Samuel Basallo might be their best bet.

Boston Red Sox: Ted Williams (521)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Roman Anthony (8)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.5/10

The best chance the Boston Red Sox had of having an active player break Ted Williams’ franchise record in home runs vanished when they unexpectedly traded Rafael Devers away during the 2025 season. With Devers off the team, Trevor Story older and Jarren Duran on the trade block, it feels like Roman Anthony is Boston’s best bet to catch Williams.

Is this likely? Of course not. Anthony has played in just 71 big league games and has only eight home runs to his credit. However, Anthony is just 21 years of age, has already inked a long-term deal with Boston, and projects to be a superstar. I doubt that he has enough power to hit more than 500 home runs, but never say never.

Chicago Cubs: Sammy Sosa (545)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Pete Crow-Armstrong (41)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.5/10

As tough as it is for a Red Sox player to catch Williams, it’ll be even tougher for a Chicago Cubs player to pass Sammy Sosa, who hit 24 more home runs as a Cub than Williams did with Boston. Ian Happ’s 173 home runs lead all active Cubs players, but at 31 years of age and in his final year under contract, his odds of catching Sammy Sosa are nonexistent. The same can likely be said about Pete Crow-Armstrong, but his odds are a touch higher.

Crow-Armstrong broke through in his second full season with 31 home runs. I question whether he can hit 30+ home runs annually, but at just 23 years of age, if Crow-Armstrong can hit with consistent power, he has a puncher’s chance.

Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas (448)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Colson Montgomery (21)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 1/10

Frank Thomas’s Chicago White Sox record isn’t quite as daunting as some of the others on this list, but when considering the White Sox’s active roster is made up of mostly young players who haven’t proven much, it’s tough to predict anyone currently in the organization will hit more than 448 home runs in a White Sox uniform.

If Colson Montgomery proves that his first stint in the majors wasn’t a fluke, though, he might be the player with the best shot of catching Thomas. Montgomery hit 21 home runs in just 71 games and 255 at-bats. For reference, that’s one home run every 12 at-bats. Cal Raleigh hit one home run every 10 at-bats in 2025. Montgomery has a lot to prove, but his pace will work, especially at just 23 years old.

Cincinnati Reds: Johnny Bench (389)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Elly De La Cruz (60)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 3/10

Eugenio Suarez’s return to the Cincinnati Reds makes him the active Reds home run leader, but him signing a one-year deal while being 200 home runs away from tying Johnny Bench makes it impossible for him to set the record. Elly De La Cruz has more work to do, but has the power to get it done.

De La Cruz has hit 60 home runs in his first 2.5 seasons and is only 24 years old. He has even more power than he’s shown thus far, and plays in a very hitter-friendly park. If the Reds are able to extend him (and it’s a big if) De La Cruz has a shot.

Cleveland Guardians: Jim Thome (337)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Jose Ramirez (285)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 10/10

Jim Thome holds the Cleveland Guardians‘ home run record, but the question at this point is when, not if, Jose Ramirez will break that record. It probably won’t be this season, with Ramirez still 48 home runs shy of tying Thome, but it’ll likely happen in 2027. With Ramirez signed to a long-term extension, who knows how many home runs he’ll end up with in a Guardians uniform?

Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton (369)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Ezequiel Tovar (51)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.25/10

Todd Helton is the greatest player in Colorado Rockies history, so it’s only fitting that he’s their home run king. If I’m being honest, it’s unlikely anyone in the Rockies organization will catch him, given the state of their roster, but Ezequiel Tovar probably has the best chance.

2025 was a down year for the shortstop, but he’s signed an extension with the club, and he hit 26 home runs in 2024. If he can string together some 30 home run seasons, which is unlikely but possible, especially when half his games occur at Coors Field, he might be able to make things a bit interesting.

Detroit Tigers: Al Kaline (399)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Riley Greene (76)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 3.75/10

Al Kaline’s Detroit Tigers record is going to be tough to chase down, but Riley Greene’s 2025 season gives some hope that he might be able to make some history. Greene is far from a perfect player, but he launched 36 home runs in 2025, giving him 76 home runs in parts of four big league seasons.

Greene is only 25 years old. If he’s able to make more consistent contact and have better luck against southpaws, who knows what his ceiling is? The Tigers will have to sign him long-term, and that’s far from a guarantee, but if that happens, Greene has a better chance than some might think.

Houston Astros: Jeff Bagwell (449)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Yordan Alvarez (170)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 4.5/10

As much as I wanted to name Jose Altuve as the Houston Astros player most likely to break Jeff Bagwell’s franchise record, he’s a little less than 200 home runs shy of accomplishing that feat. Given his age (35), it’s unlikely Altuve gets there. As for Yordan Alvarez, he’s got a shot.

It’d require more durability and an extension, but Alvarez is at 170 home runs at just 28 years of age. He’s averaged 34 home runs in seasons that have seen him play 100+ games in his career, so he has the power to get there if he can stay on the field. It’s a tall ask, though.

Kansas City Royals: George Brett (317)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Salvador Perez (303)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 10/10

George Brett is the Kansas City Royals‘ all-time home runs leader, but barely. He’s at 317 home runs in a Royals uniform, while Salvador Perez is at 303. With that, Perez is almost certain to pass Brett sometime in the 2025 season. Will Perez remain the franchise’s leader for long, though? Bobby Witt Jr. might have something to say about that.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (404)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Zach Neto (58)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 1/10

Mike Trout is one of two players on this list currently active on the team with whom he has the home run record. Mike Trout’s 404 home runs lead the Los Angeles Angels by a mile, and I’m not sold that anyone on this current team will be able to catch him.

Zach Neto probably has the best chance of anyone. He just hit 26 home runs in his age-24 season, and has room for improvement. If the Angels get him locked up, he has an outside chance of catching Trout, but it’s definitely unlikely.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Duke Snider (389)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Shohei Ohtani (109)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 7/10

Shohei Ohtani only started his Los Angeles Dodgers‘ career at 29 years of age, yet he’s the player most likely to break Duke Snider’s franchise home run record. In just two seasons, Ohtani has launched 109 home runs. At that 54.5 home run pace, he’d break Snider’s record in roughly six seasons.

With eight years left on his deal, Ohtani doesn’t even have to hit at that mammoth pace to pass Snider. He’s going to need to have some big years, but if he’s able to average 35 home runs over that eight-year span, Ohtani will be right around Snider’s mark.

Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton (267)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Agustin Ramirez (21)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 3.5/10

There are two players I consider most likely to catch Giancarlo Stanton’s Miami Marlins record. Kyle Stowers, an outfielder who just hit 25 home runs in an All-Star year, is one of them, and Agustin Ramirez, a young catcher who just hit 21 home runs in his first taste of big league action, is the other.

I went with Ramirez, mostly because he (24) is four years younger than Stowers (28). His position is more physically demanding, making it tougher for him, but Ramirez has a ton of power, and while Stanton’s record is intimidating, it’s one of the easier records to break on this list.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun (352)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Jackson Chourio (42)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 6/10

Jackson Chourio is only 21 years of age, yet he has 42 home runs to his credit. He’s already played two full seasons, and he has legitimate superstar upside. It’s also worth noting that Chourio has eight more years under contract.

He’ll have to average more than 30 home runs annually in those eight years to pass Ryan Braun to set the Milwaukee Brewers‘ franchise record, and that’s easier said than done, especially for a player who hasn’t hit more than 21 home runs in a season, but he has a shot.

Minnesota Twins: Harmon Killebrew (559)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Walker Jenkins (0)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.25/10

Not only is Harmon Killebrew’s Minnesota Twins record one of the hardest on this list to catch, but the Twins’ roster doesn’t have anyone remotely likely to come close. Byron Buxton is their best player by far, and he has massive power, but he’s at 168 home runs, has durability concerns, and is 32 years old. With that, why not dub a prospect like Walker Jenkins as the most likely?

We have no idea how Jenkins will acclimate to big league pitching, but at just 21 years of age, he’s almost big league-ready and has tons of power. If anyone in this organization is likely to catch Killebrew, which is a near-impossible task in its own right, it’s Jenkins.

New York Mets: Pete Alonso (264)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Francisco Lindor (141)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 9/10

Pete Alonso just broke Darryl Strawberry’s New York Mets franchise record in home runs, but he also just signed with the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason. His departure leaves the door open for someone else to break the record, and Francisco Lindor is getting closer.

Lindor has more home runs than Alonso in his career overall, but is at 141 home runs in a New York uniform, making him 123 home runs shy of tying Alonso’s Mets record. Lindor is under contract for six more years, so he needs roughly 20 home runs annually to get there. Lindor has hit 20+ home runs in each of his five years in New York and has cleared the 30-home run mark in each of the last three years, so he’s a near lock to catch Alonso. Juan Soto might pass both by the time his 15-year deal expires, though.

New York Yankees: Babe Ruth (659)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Aaron Judge (368)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 1/10

Babe Ruth’s New York Yankees home run record is going to be incredibly hard for anyone, even Aaron Judge, to break. Even with everything he’s done, he’s a little less than 300 home runs shy of passing Ruth, which, at age 33, is going to be very difficult for Judge to do.

With that being said, Judge has hit home runs at a historic pace whenever he’s healthy, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. I don’t expect Judge to get there, but at this point, should I really be doubting him?

Philadelphia Phillies: Mike Schmidt (548)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Kyle Schwarber (187)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.75/10

Kyle Schwarber is in a similar spot to Judge, in that he’s facing a massive deficit in the Philadelphia Phillies‘ franchise home run race, yet he’s hitting home runs at such a torrid pace to the point where it’s hard to doubt him. Schwarber hit 56 home runs in 2025, and has hit 46+ home runs in three of the last four years. He also just re-signed with the Phillies for five more years, and is clearly getting better with age.

Do I expect Schwarber to hit another 360-ish home runs in a Phillies uniform? Of course not, but who else is there to pick? Bryce Harper is the same age and not quite the slugger Schwarber is. I could’ve gone with a prospect like Aidan Miller, but Schwarber feels like the safer, yet unlikely, bet.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Willie Stargel (475)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Konnor Griffin (0)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 1/10

It’s highly unlikely that anyone on the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ active roster will catch Willie Stargel in the home run category, but what about Konnor Griffin? The consensus best prospect in baseball has light tower power and could find his way onto the Pirates’ Opening Day roster despite being just 19 years old.

A player who debuts that young has the ability to be in the majors for a very long time and rack up some serious numbers. It’s hard to bet on someone you haven’t seen in the majors before, but Griffin is the real deal.

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado (194)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Fernando Tatis Jr. (152)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 8/10

Manny Machado is the other player currently active on the team with whom he has the home run record, and since he’s under contract for another eight years, it might be a while before a San Diego Padres player catches him. If anyone were to get there, though, it’d be Fernando Tatis Jr.

Despite only turning 27 years old in January, Tatis is just 42 home runs behind Machado’s Padres mark, and he’s also under contract for another nine years. If the Padres don’t trade him, there’s a chance that once Machado slows down and Tatis reaches his prime, he becomes San Diego’s home run king.

San Francisco Giants: Willie Mays (646)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Bryce Eldridge (0)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.5/10

Willie Mays, not Barry Bonds, is the San Francisco Giants‘ all-time home run leader, and with 646 home runs in that uniform, I have my doubts that anyone will catch him. Rafael Devers playing his entire career in San Francisco might’ve given him a puncher’s chance, but now that he began his Giants career as a 28-year-old, he’s got no shot. This makes Bryce Eldridge the answer.

Will Eldridge get there? Almost certainly not. He hasn’t proven much of anything at the big league level to make me think otherwise, and being a left-handed power hitter at Oracle Park is very tough for anyone not named Barry Bonds. Eldridge does have a ton of power, and since he’s so young, if he can string some big power years together, who knows what his ceiling is?

Seattle Mariners: Ken Griffey Jr. (417)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Julio Rodriguez (112)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 4.5/10

The Seattle Mariners have two players who can conceivably catch Ken Griffey Jr. Cal Raleigh has a 41-home run lead over Julio Rodriguez, but Rodriguez has two things in his favor worth keeping in mind. He’s four years younger than Raleigh, and is under contract for another nine years, while Raleigh is under contract for just five.

Rodriguez is the pick just because he has more time, but if Raleigh has another one or two 60-home run years in him, he could make things very interesting too. Regardless, both have a decent shot.

St. Louis Cardinals: Stan Musial (475)

• Active player most likely to catch him: JJ Wetherholt (0)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 0.5/10

Stan Musial’s record isn’t the toughest one to break on the list, but with the state of the St. Louis Cardinals‘ roster right now, it might be the hardest roster to find a record-breaker within. JJ Wetherholt, their top prospect, has the best chance. I’m not sold that he has the power to hit more than 475 home runs, but he’ll begin his MLB career at a young age, so he could have the longevity to get somewhat close.

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria (261)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Junior Caminero (52)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 6/10

Evan Longoria’s record might get broken by another Tampa Bay Rays third baseman. This might sound a bit premature, but Junior Caminero just hit 45 home runs in his first full season as a 22-year-old. The odds of him staying in Tampa Bay long-term are probably slim, but he has the power to break Longoria’s record during his years of club control. He’s that good.

Texas Rangers: Juan Gonzalez (372)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Wyatt Langford (38)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 1.5/10

A Texas Rangers franchise that has deployed legends like Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmiero and Ivan Rodriguez has Juan Gonzalez as its home run leader, speaking to the importance of longevity with a franchise. Corey Seager is the Texas Rangers’ best player and might get to 372 career home runs, but he’s 31 years old, has had trouble staying healthy, and is over 250 home runs shy of Juan Gonzalez’s franchise record.

Wyatt Langford has a lot more to prove, obviously, but he’s just 24 years old, just hit 22 home runs, and has the potential to hit even more annually. It’s going to take more consistent power than what he’s shown thus far, but if the Rangers are able to extend him, he’ll have a puncher’s chance.

Toronto Blue Jays: Carlos Delgado (336)

• Active player most likely to catch him: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (183)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 9.5/10

It looked as if Carlos Delgado’s Toronto Blue Jays franchise record was going to be safe until Vladimir Guerrero Jr. inked a 14-year extension to remain with the club, likely for the remainder of his career. Now, Guerrero is roughly 150 home runs away from catching Delgado, making it a matter of when, not if, the record is broken, given the amount of time he has left with the Jays.

Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman (284)

• Active player most likely to catch him: James Wood (40)
• Likelihood of breaking record: 5.5/10

Ryan Zimmerman hit more home runs with the Washington Nationals than most might’ve expected, but even at 284 home runs, James Wood has the power to beat that with ease. Wood hit 31 home runs in his first full big league season despite a disastrous second half, and he’s only 23 years old. It’d likely take an extension for Wood to break Zimmerman’s record, but if that happens, he should get there.

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