The cryptocurrency market experienced renewed turbulence this week as XRP slipped 3% over the past 24 hours, falling to $2.01 in early morning trading. The decline occurred alongside a noticeable uptick in trading activity, with 24-hour volume rising 4% to $4.15 billion, signaling increased investor uncertainty and short-term profit-taking.
Despite the current sell-off, investor attention remains sharply focused on a major development unfolding in the XRP ecosystem: the imminent launch of the fifth U.S. XRP-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF). The Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) recently gave the green light for 21Shares’ new XRP ETF, which is set to trade under the ticker TOXR. This positions the asset for its latest step into mainstream financial infrastructure though it still awaits final approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
New XRP ETF Nears Launch: A Milestone with Mixed Market Impact
According to regulatory documents filed with the SEC, the 21Shares XRP ETF is approved for listing but remains subject to a “delaying amendment,” an administrative mechanism that signals the SEC has not yet granted full effectiveness to the filing. Until that happens, the ETF cannot officially begin trading.
The fund will carry an annual sponsor fee of 0.3%, placing it competitively among other crypto ETFs in the U.S. market. Notably, Ripple itself seeded the fund with 100 million XRP, a contribution worth roughly $226 million at current prices. Investors will have the flexibility to participate through in-kind XRP transfers or traditional cash settlements, increasing accessibility for both institutional and retail participants.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted a significant milestone for the ecosystem, noting that U.S.-based spot XRP ETFs have collectively absorbed nearly $954 million in inflows in less than one month. This rapid accumulation has set XRP apart as one of the fastest-growing crypto ETF classes launched to date, even surpassing early benchmarks set by some Bitcoin and Ethereum funds. Perhaps more notably, these products have not recorded any net outflows, an impressive feat considering the broader volatility in the digital asset market.
However, despite these positive institutional indicators, market sentiment around XRP remains divided. Many traders expected a more substantial price rally accompanying ETF approvals, similar to the explosive reaction Bitcoin experienced when U.S. spot ETFs went live. Instead, XRP’s price has continued to face resistance amid broader market headwinds, macroeconomic uncertainty, and technical pressure within the asset’s trading ranges.
XRP Network Activity Shows Strong Correlation to Price Trends
Recent blockchain metrics indicate that XRP network activity remains unusually elevated, with active addresses maintaining levels higher than typical historical averages. Data trends show that active address spikes have historically aligned with XRP’s strongest price surges, including those in early 2018, mid-2020, and late 2024.
Conversely, periods of decline or sideways movement have been associated with drops in activity, suggesting that XRP’s price is heavily influenced by user engagement and overall network utilization.
Analysts interpret the sustained rise in active addresses as a sign of ongoing interest and healthy adoption, even as the token faces market pressure. If network engagement remains strong, many believe it could provide fundamental support to prices and set the stage for a potential rebound once market conditions stabilize.
Technical Analysis: XRP Bearish Trend Intensifies, but Relief Rally Still Possible
Technically, XRP has remained locked in a steady downward trajectory since mid-November 2025. With current prices hovering near $2.01, the asset recently retested its 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $1.80, a level that has historically acted as a critical long-term support.
At the same time, the 50-period SMA, now positioned significantly higher at $2.72, continues to reinforce the medium-term bearish outlook. Any meaningful recovery will likely face firm resistance at both this moving average and the upper Bollinger Band, which currently sits around $2.49.
Additionally, XRP is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.88, signaling that the asset has entered an oversold zone. This technical alignment often precedes a near-term bounce as prices revert toward the middle band, currently near $2.19, which aligns with the 14-period SMA. However, the unusually wide spread between the Bollinger Bands underscores heightened volatility and suggests that even if XRP stages a short-term recovery, the upward momentum may be limited unless buy-side volume strengthens.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.78, which points to bearish momentum but stops short of flashing extreme oversold conditions. If the price drops below the immediate support level at $1.89, the next key support lies at $1.73, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the broader price move between $1.73 and $2.93. A breach of this level could place psychological support at $1.60 into view.
On the upside, analysts note that a break above $2.20 could invite renewed buying interest, with additional resistance zones emerging at the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($2.37) and 0.5 Fibonacci level ($2.48).
Trading Volume and Market Sentiment
Current trading volume for XRP remains stable at around $280 million, indicating a lack of panic-driven selling but also a shortage of strong accumulation from buyers. This quiet volume pattern creates conditions where false breakouts become more likely, requiring traders to approach the market with caution.
Swing traders may focus on key confirmation signals, such as:
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A sustained close above $2.37
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A decisive move above the 200-period SMA
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Clear volume expansion accompanying upward price movement
Until these signals emerge, XRP is expected to remain in a bearish consolidation phase, with continued vulnerability to downward pressure.
Conclusion: Bearish Mid-Term Outlook with Potential for Short-Term Relief
At present, XRP maintains a bearish mid-term structure, constrained by technical resistance levels and cautious market sentiment. However, oversold indicators point toward the possibility of a short-term relief rally, provided the asset can hold critical support zones.
Key levels to watch in the coming days include:
Resistance:
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$2.20
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$2.37
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$2.48
Support:
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$1.89
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$1.73
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$1.60 (psychological)
The upcoming 21Shares XRP ETF launch remains a pivotal event that could influence investor sentiment and market structure. While institutional inflows are encouraging, macro conditions and technical patterns continue to shape XRP’s near-term trajectory.