Europe’s supermajors are set to report a strong quarter later this month and in early May thanks to their trading divisions. While Big Oil does not report trading profits, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor all signaled they are making a lot of money on trade with oil and gas in what some say is the worst supply crisis in history.
Shell was the first to flag “significantly higher” profits from oil and gas trading in its financial report for the first quarter of the year. The company attributed the expected windfall on the extreme volatility in international oil and gas markets resulting from the disruption of production and exports from the Middle East.
That said, Shell also reported that its own oil and gas production for the quarter would be down from the last quarter of 2025, at between 880,000 bpd and 920,000 bpd in oil equivalent, compared with 948,000 barrels daily in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company noted this reflected “the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes.” Shell reports first-quarter results on May 7.
BP was next, reporting in an update that it expected an “exceptional” oil trading result for the first quarter of 2026, amid the extreme volatility in prices. While those watching the futures market alone may find it puzzling that the supermajors are talking about extreme volatility, those focusing on physical oil prices would hardly be surprised. Earlier this month, the price for a barrel of Brent for immediate delivery spiked to $150.
BP, which is set to report full first-quarter earnings on April 28, noted in its update that all its estimated earnings “include impacts associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the current market conditions resulting in heightened volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter.” With fuel shortages already emerging in parts of the world, the strength in trading performance may extend into the second quarter as well.
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TotalEnergies was the third supermajor to boast higher profits from oil and gas trading when it reports financials on April 29. The company said in its update on first-quarter results that the war between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran had effectively shut in as much as 15% of TotalEnergies’ global oil and gas production, which also accounts for a tenth of the company’s cash flow from upstream operations.
However, higher international prices for both oil and LNG would boost TotalEnergies’ trading profits considerably, the company said, noting that “Integrated LNG results and cash flow are expected to be significantly higher than fourth quarter 2025, underpinned by a 10% LNG production increase compared to fourth quarter and strong trading activities benefiting from market volatility.” Also, production startups in Brazil and Libya had offset lost Middle Eastern barrels, TotalEnergies said. The startups contributed to a total first-quarter production rate that would be flat on the fourth quarter of 2025.
