Bullet point summary by AI
- An injury to Dylan Cease could push the Toronto Blue Jays toward exploring a major trade for a frontline starter.
- The Detroit Tigers could field offers for two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, but competition will be fierce from several playoff contenders.
- The Skubal decision hinges on whether the Jays are willing to part with elite prospects while still uncertain about their playoff chances this season.
The Toronto Blue Jays haven’t yet decided if they are buyers or sellers. The Jays won the AL Pennant last season and, on paper, should contend for the same title again this season. Paper doesn’t always equal results, though, and the Blue Jays are still a few games under .500 as they reach a more favorable stretch of their schedule. An injury to free-agent acquisition Dylan Cease in Sunday’s start makes the need for a frontline starting pitcher all the more important. Thankfully, the Jays are just one of a few front offices with an in for two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Blue Jays are one of four teams with the lead in the Skubal chase. It’s also only late-May, so the likes of Toronto, the Dodgers, the Padres and the Yankees have work to do. But an injury to Cease — no matter how severe — only heightens matters.
What a Blue Jays trade for Tarik Skubal would look like
Any trade for Skubal will be expensive. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported on this aspect of negotiations earlier this week, quoting several anonymous general managers in the process. The consensus is basically one top-100 prospect plus another team top-10 prospect. As great as Skubal is, the Tigers can no longer demand a king’s ransom, as he’s coming off injury and is in a contract year. They will not receive a Juan Soto haul for Skubal (even from the Padres) since MLB teams have learned that lesson the hard way.
This is essentially what Murray outlined above. Nimmala is a top-60 prospect in all of baseball, but the Blue Jays have some insurance at the position. Their second-ranked prospect, JoJo Parker, is a shortstop and a year younger. Stanifer is the Jays sixth-ranked prospect, hence this being a strong trade package. Stanifer is no Trey Yesavage, but he has some potential in the right system. The Tigers tend to develop starting pitchers well when they don’t get hurt (sigh), and Stanifer is struggling in Double-A. Thus, he’s a prospect ripe for the picking if Scott Harris sees some value in him.
Would the Blue Jays make this trade?
This trade gives me the ick for a few reasons. First, I don’t think the Jays would be able to hang onto Skubal when he hits free agency. Trust me, I root for the Tigers personally. Toronto has been down this road before. Losing free agents to the Dodgers is not in their best interest. The good news is Skubal will go to the highest bidder. That could be Ross Atkins and Co. should he play his cards right.
On the surface, this isn’t a lot to pay for half a season of a two-time AL Cy Young winner. For it to make sense, though, the Blue Jays have to be in contention. Right now that’s not really the case, though half of the American League is under water. If a trade is a tough call for both sides, odds are it’s the correct kind of give and take.
Verdict: Yes
Would the Tigers make this trade?
The Tigers are selling in what should be a seller’s market for Skubal. There are four early favorites for Skubal, which is good news for Harris. The bad news is he has blown this before — see Eduardo Rodriguez and Jack Flaherty. Neither of those two pitchers were as capable as Skubal, of course, and the Tigers should be able to come away with at least one top-100 prospect they believe in.
Whether the Tigers make this trade is largely based on the competition. For example, the Dodgers have the second-ranked farm system in baseball. If Andrew Friedman decides to beat the Blue Jays offer, they can afford to do so quite easily. On the surface, though, adding a prospect like Nimmala, whose only real weakness is the hit tool and could play shortstop in the majors today based on fielding alone, is a worthy addition.
The same can be said of Stanifer, who projects as a mid-rotation starting pitcher. I see no problem with the trade itself, but I also don’t know the other offers. And we likely won’t until the deadline, as Harris is prone to wait on these sorts of things.
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