By admin 
Bullet point summary by AI
- The All Star break is over and MLB’s second half begins this week with dramatic playoff races set to unfold.
- Several teams face pivotal decisions at the trade deadline that could define their postseason chances.
- Contenders must navigate key injuries and service time clocks while balancing short-term wins against long-term strategy.
The All-Star Game has come and gone and the second half of the season is set to begin on Thursday, with the Philadelphia Phillies playing host to the New York Mets. The other 28 teams return to action on Friday, which could set the stage for a wild finish with dramatic Wild Card races in both the American and National League.
There is still a lot of baseball to be played, a trade deadline to come and a full postseason to see if anyone can dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers as World Series champs. Before the season resumes, let’s take a look at seven bold predictions for the rest of the campaign.
The Dodgers shut down Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher
It sure feels like the Dodgers want Ohtani to win a Cy Young award this season, giving him the last infinity stone in his quest to become the greatest player who’s ever lived. Ohtani has lived up to the hype on the mound in his first full two-way season since 2023, going 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 starts, but a series of minor injuries have been popping up for him over the course of the year.
A knee issue led Ohtani to skip the All Star Game, which the Dodgers are hoping will be enough to get him right for the rest of the season. Given Ohtani’s importance to the lineup and the potential to build a strong rotation without him by September (with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and either All-Star Justin Wrobleski or a deadline acquisition), L.A. will make the prudent decision to have him focus solely on hitting for the postseason and leave the door open for him to stop pitching entirely moving forward.
The Tigers buy at the trade deadline
A brutal start to the season led many to assume that the Detroit Tigers will end up selling at the trade deadline. The prime asset Detroit has to offer would be Tarik Skubal, the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner who is highly unlikely to remain a Tiger after the season as he hits free agency with agent Scott Boras.
But the Tigers got hot at the end of the first half, and the mediocre state of the AL means a 44-52 record is good enough to be just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Much like the Angels did in 2023 when they had a decision to make with Ohtani, Detroit will load up around Skubal to make a run at a Wild Card spot with the hope of getting hot in October for one final run at glory with their ace.
The Pirates grab a Wild Card spot in the NL
The NL Wild Card race is considerably more competitive than the AL, with the top four teams sitting on the outside of the Senior Circuit’s projected field having a good enough record to have an outright spot in the AL bracket. One of those teams is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been quietly competitive in the NL Central despite so-so results from Paul Skenes and a few black holes in their lineup.
Given the ticking clock of Skenes’ service time, the Pirates will likely add bullpen help and another bat at the deadline to make a playoff run with him. Those additions will be enough to help Pittsburgh leapfrog the third-place NL East team to reach the postseason for the first time in 11 years, which could create an electric atmosphere at PNC Park if the Pirates can reach the Division Series.
The Mets’ fire sale isn’t as big as people expect
The very expensive flop that is the 2026 Mets has already cost manager Carlos Mendoza his job and could set the stage for long-term changes in the organization. David Peterson was already traded away and there is fire-sale potential with a lot of intriguing pieces to shop, including ace Freddy Peralta and key relievers Devin Williams, Brooks Raley, Luke Weaver and A.J. Minter.
The Mets do, however, plan to contend in 2027 and have a lot of their roster for next year already in place, meaning they aren’t that far away from being a postseason team if they make proper additions in the offseason. David Stearns will sell high on all of his rentals before the Aug. 3 deadline, but the Mets will hold a high price on pieces with additional club control, such as Williams, Weaver and Clay Holmes, that isn’t met in a seller’s market.
The Braves don’t win the National League East
The slow starts for the Mets and Phillies allowed the Atlanta Braves to jump out to a huge lead in the NL East, though that advantage has slowly narrowed as we hit the break. Injuries and regression have hit Atlanta hard, with the Braves going just 19-22 since Memorial Day to open the door for them to be caught in the division.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has caught fire since firing Rob Thomson, closing to within two games of Atlanta at the break under interim skipper Don Mattingly. Miami has also crept back into the race on the strength of a 20-6 June that has led to plans for buying at the deadline, providing enough of a threat that at least one of them will catch the Braves down the stretch.
The Rays make the biggest deadline splash
Few teams have overachieved more this season than the Tampa Bay Rays, who were a trendy last-place pick in the competitive American League East this spring. Tampa has relied on a mix of strong pitching, excellent defense and timely hitting to enter the break with a three-game lead over a banged-up Yankees team in the division, making this a perfect time for them to strike big at the deadline.
The Rays have been known to go big-game hunting when they think they have a shot to reach a World Series, notably offering then-prospect Junior Caminero to the Angels in a 2023 deadline deal that would have allowed them to rent Ohtani for the stretch run. Expect them to make a heavy push for an ace, with Peralta and Skubal (if Detroit sells) as strong possibilities, and a big bat to ensure they win the division and avoid the Wild Card round.
Aaron Judge isn’t back before mid-September
The biggest injury in baseball this season has been the loss of Judge to a rib fracture. The Yankees have been slow-playing Judge’s return, hoping to let him fully heal before he gets back in the lineup, and his long absence will require a substantial rehab assignment to get Judge up to speed before the postseason.
There is a minuscule chance the Yankees don’t make the postseason, so it behooves them to ensure Judge is as healthy as possible for the playoffs. Expect further conservative tactics with the two-time reigning AL MVP, who isn’t back before mid-September to give him a two week launching pad to get his timing back before the playoffs.
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