The Philadelphia Phillies started the Don Mattingly era on a high note, but at 11-19 on the season, there’s still a lot of ground to make up. It’s clear the Phillies, as currently constructed, cannot and will not compete for a World Series. Dave Dombrowski has seen diminishing returns with this core for a few years now. It’s time to change something.
The Phillies either can’t trade (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner) or won’t trade (Kyle Schwarber) their veteran superstars, so Philadelphia needs to find a way to build a better lineup around them. The pitching staff could use some fine-tuning as well, although that’s an area where it’s easier to bank on positive regression. Here’s what Philly can do in the days and weeks ahead to get this train back on track:
Trade Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm is essentially the worst qualified hitter in the majors right now. He’s batting .157 (16-for-102) with a .444 OPS. He has a single home run. Bohm has never generated much power, but he can’t elevate or drive the baseball whatsoever right now. He’s experiencing some bad luck (.224 xBA), but come on. We know the deal, and Bohm is completely lost in the weeds.
The Phillies should see what the trade market offers up for a 29-year-old with All-Star pedigree. It’s probably not much, as Bohm is on an expiring contract, but this is a pure exercise in addition by subtraction. Even if the Phillies practically give Bohm away, just getting a fresh bat (or two) in the mix at third base could work wonders.
Philadelphia has limited in-house alternatives, but Felix Reyes is a natural third baseman who deserves a more extended opportunity. Even minor league options like Otto Kemp or Christian Cairo could pan out. In reality, trading Bohm should probably coincide with a separate trade to bring in Bohm’s replacement. The Phillies can’t get too cute. This roster needs a talent influx.
Upgrade the Dylan Moore spot
With Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott both slow out of the gate, the Phillies really can’t afford an absolute zero coming off the bench. Dylan Moore is 0-for-11 on the season, and while he’s a Gold Glove winner and a savvy pinch-runner, the Phillies could use a bit more offensive upside from their sixth infielder.
How exactly the Phillies should go about replacing Moore is up for debate. Christian Cairo isn’t a ranked prospect, but the 24-year-old is on the 40-man roster and he has an .832 OPS so far this season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. There’s a case for recalling Otto Kemp and playing him more at third or first base. Another option: 28-year-old Carter Kieboom. He’s not on the 40-man roster and his MLB track record is suspect, but he’s hitting .310 with an .823 OPS in Triple-A right now.
If Bohm is axed, that just opens up another roster spot. So the Phillies (again) need to look externally for upgrades, even on the margins. Moore simply has not produced enough at the plate over his last couple seasons to take up a roster spot.
Move Kyle Schwarber into the leadoff spot
There have been several instances already in which the Phillies turned the lineup over late in a game, with runners in scoring position and two outs, only for Trea Turner to muff the opportunity. Turner thrived in the leadoff spot last season, as he has for much of his career, but the bat is too cold right now. The Phillies need more consistent production up top.
That’s why now is the time to revisit Kyle Schwarber in the No. 1 spot. It has worked for Philadelphia in the past. The leadoff bombs are nice, but more importantly, is means Schwarber bats as often as possible — and hopefully gets more bites at the apple in critical late-game situations with runners on base.
Schwarber’s low-average (.190 BA), high-strikeout style is not traditional to the leadoff spot, but he gets on base a ton (.346 OBP) because opponents pitch around him. Turner can bat second, with Bryce Harper in the No. 3 hole. It’s unconventional but it will almost certainly be effective.
Phillies need to target bullpen depth
With Jhoan Durán, Kyle Backhus and Zach Pop piled up on the IL (and Jonathan Bowlan only recently returning from his own IL stint), the Phillies’ bullpen depth is being tested early. José Alvaredo is getting knocked around, which he’s prone to. Brad Keller and Orion Kerkering look sharp enough, but their high-leverage options thin out quickly.
Every contender looks for bullpen help at the deadline, but Philly needs to really prioritize it. A dependable lefty would be especially helpful, as both Alvarado and Tanner Banks have ERAs north of 7.00 at the moment. Tim Mayza has done well after winning a job out of spring training, but it’s hard to fully rely on him given the recent track record.
Trading Matt Strahm looks smart in hindsight — Bowlan, their return piece, has multiple years of club control and he’s trending up — but it did leave the Phillies without one of their favorite options in setup situations and other late, close games. Dombrowski ought to throw a few prospects to the wind, even if a Jhoan Durán-level acquisition is out of the question.
Prepare for Aidan Miller’s midseason arrival (hopefully)
Aidan Miller is the top prospect in Philadelphia’s farm system. He’d probably be on the team right now if he was healthy. Unfortunately, Miller has dealt with a recurring back injury since last season, and it kept him out of spring training entirely. He’s on the right track in rehab, but it’s unclear how quickly he can get back up to speed.
So, this is obviously contingent on favorable health developments. If Miller can get back within the next couple of months and build up some quick rhythm in Lehigh Valley, however, Philadelphia should run — not walk — to call him up. This goes hand-in-hand with trading Bohm (and even cutting Dylan Moore). Bohm was always going to start the year at third base, but he’s a free agent — and that spot belongs to Miller long-term.
The Phillies need more dependable right-handed hitting. It has been a weakness for years. Miller won’t solve every problem, but he’s a legitimate future star who can add some youth and some power to a needy Philadelphia lineup.
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