A growing rebellion is taking shape within Labour’s grassroots, with a significant number of party members saying they want Ed Miliband to take over the leadership and many warning the party is headed for defeat at the next general election unless Keir Starmer is replaced.
The findings, drawn from a substantial YouGov survey for the City consultancy BlondeMoney, reveal the depth of dissatisfaction simmering within Labour’s rank and file. They also underline how precarious Starmer’s authority has become, only months into his tenure as Prime Minister.
Miliband emerges as an unexpected frontrunner
In a surprise twist, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband topped the list of preferred leadership contenders among Labour members. Miliband, who led the party from 2010 to 2015 and famously endured media jibes over his “bacon sandwich” photograph, has repeatedly brushed off rumours of a comeback. Yet he has nonetheless secured the highest approval rating of all potential successors.
His track record leading Labour throughout the coalition years before resigning after David Cameron’s 2015 majority victory might have been expected to dampen enthusiasm. Instead, members view him more favourably than any other senior figure currently in Cabinet.
Members fear a looming election defeat under Starmer
The poll suggests not merely discontent but deep-seated anxiety. A slim majority of members (51%) believe Labour is unlikely to win the next election if Starmer stays at the helm. More than half (58%) say the government is performing worse than they had hoped, a significant warning sign for a party that only recently returned to power.
Starmer’s own standing is the starkest indicator: he is the only senior Labour politician with a net negative rating among members — at –3%. Just three months ago he stood at +33%. Such a dramatic fall in internal support adds fuel to existing speculation about leadership turmoil.
Wes Streeting second favourite despite factional divide
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, often associated with Labour’s more centrist wing, came in second place among members. His strong showing is striking given that much of the membership is seen as being to the left of him ideologically.
Members told YouGov that a candidate’s ability to defeat Nigel Farage not ideological purity is now a more important consideration. That priority appears to be reshaping internal allegiances and lifting potential challengers like Streeting.
The poll also comes after a tumultuous few weeks in Westminster. A series of hostile briefings against Streeting that emerged from within No.10 backfired disastrously, forcing Starmer to apologise to his Health Secretary and inadvertently strengthening Streeting’s position within the party.
Grassroots support collapses as leadership rumours swirl
Over recent months there has been a sharp collapse in support for the Prime Minister among Labour’s grassroots. Polls now show the party slipping far behind Reform UK, roughly tied with the Conservatives, and hanging only slightly ahead of the Liberal Democrats and Greens an astonishing reversal of fortune for a government that entered office with high expectations.
Speculation around possible successors has grown steadily. Talk of a challenge from Manchester mayor Andy Burnham fizzled earlier in the year, but the renewed turbulence in Westminster has turned attention toward those within Cabinet who might be preparing a move.
Approval ratings of potential contenders
The YouGov figures reveal a mixed landscape:
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Ed Miliband: +55% approval the highest of all contenders.
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Wes Streeting: +44% a strong second place, and rising in influence.
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Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary): +18%.
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Lucy Powell (Deputy Leader): +31%.
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Rachel Reeves (Chancellor): +13%, weighed down by a rocky pre-Budget period and questions about economic forecasts.
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Keir Starmer: –3%, making him the only senior Labour figure with a net negative rating.
Helen Thomas of BlondeMoney said the poll confirms that Starmer’s falling approval among the public mirrors what is happening inside the party, a trend likely to intensify speculation about a future leadership contest and the direction of Labour’s government.
Streeting–Rayner ‘joint ticket’ rumour denied
Adding to the swirl of intrigue, reports surfaced suggesting that allies of Wes Streeting have approached Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner about forming a “joint ticket.” According to sources cited in the reports, Rayner was allegedly offered a route back into Cabinet and even a potential return to the role of deputy prime minister in exchange for supporting Streeting.