Good morning! Despite a Hormuz blockade, an outlook warning from Goldman Sachs, and oil still surfing the $100 per barrel, the stock market resumed its progress up and to the right.
With the S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 1% gain, it’s only about a percent off its pre-Iran conflict level — when a barrel of oil was just $65!
On Monday, the Dow (^DJI) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) rose 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.
On the agenda this morning:
The US’s cork in Hormuz ushers in a new phase in the war
Goldman rakes it in, but issues a warning
Wall Street is still very bullish — and it’s raising some eyebrows
Some bad financial news for everybody
Prediction markets look out for ChatGPT 5.5
The kids are making credit card mistakes
What we’re watching Tuesday: It’s Big Bank day, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) set to open their books, as well as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), BlackRock (BLK), Albertsons (ACI), CarMax (KMX), and Rent the Runway (RENT).
We’ll be watching for consumer insights in addition to Wall Street’s financials and outlooks.
Ships waiting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz a few days ago. (Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
With the US Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in effect after talks bore no fruit, the Iran war has entered a new phase.
President Trump has threatened that any boat that comes close to the naval blockade will be “eliminated.” No ships may pass through to or from Iranian ports, and those that do will be intercepted, captured, or diverted. Iran, for its part, has said it would target Gulf states’ ports should its own be threatened.
While Iran’s blockade was somewhat porous, as the regime did, in fact, allow some ships from negotiating countries to pass, the current situation may push fuel-importing countries further into desperation. The difference between futures and actual, physical oil is wildly different. Countries need it now.
But Trump told reporters on Monday that Iran has gotten back in touch despite its threats.
This immediately reversed the market’s losses, as the escalation may have suddenly revived the prospect of a resolution, should Iran’s outreach prove meaningful.
The Big Bank CEOs back in 2023. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images) ·SAUL LOEB via Getty Images
The Big Bank’s first quarter earnings season kicked off well enough on Monday, with Goldman Sachs seeing profits jump by 19%. Dealmaking is back — or was back in the first quarter — and banks are getting better at making money when markets are choppy.
Despite those barnstorming results, the company’s stock fell as commentary, perhaps not surprisingly, painted a concerned picture amid an uncertain war and economic fallout.
The vibe from the bank was a curious mixture of tailwinds and headwinds, sometimes coming from the same place, like the Trump administration’s favorable regulation, but a rougher climate for companies willing to go out on a limb, given that uncertainty.
But the main message from CEO David Solomon seemed to be one of positivity despite the uncertainty over the next year.
“Things rarely move in a straight line,” he mused, also noting just how different things seemed at the beginning of 2026.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are all up next.
(Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images) ·Erik McGregor via Getty Images
Over the weekend, we read with great interest (as always), Lori Calvasina’s thoughts on the current, fragile market moment.
The head of US equity strategy research for RBC often gets us thinking outside of the box that the big headlines generally force the market into.
“As has become our style, we are attempting to stay more focused on numbers than narrative,” she noted, electing to stay the course on the team’s 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target — around a 13% increase from current levels.
The joists, beams, and footings that bolster that projection are the assumptions that investor sentiment will recover, earnings growth will remain solid, and the macro picture will continue on track, once again weathering the storm and brushing off recession vibes.
As we traverse this earnings season, these two conflicting sentiments will be the big-picture lens through which we view results.
As Calvasina herself said, she’s listening for stories about inventory disruptions, cost impacts, supply chain challenges, the duration risk of the war, and whether customer behavior is changing.
“The fog emanating from the war in Iran is particularly thick for the forecasting community today.”
—Lori Calvasina, RBC’s head of US equity strategy research
(Getty) ·Grace Cary via Getty Images
Last Friday’s inflation data showed just how much higher gas prices were biting people’s wallets, even if the “core” figures showed some of the underlying issues the economy has been dealing with are improving.
Cold comfort, especially given how fast wages are rising.
Taking the figures out of the Fed cut conversation and bringing them back to the consumer story shows something concerning: Pay gains are about to be completely consumed by inflation gains.
Economists project that inflation will “almost certainly” overshadow wages either this month or in the next, meaning that real wages — the amount of buying power you have — will drop.
A look at our prediction markets page shows people eagerly awaiting the new release of ChatGPT.
A credit crisis may or may not be bubbling up on Wall Street, but it appears to be with the Gen Z cohort and credit cards.
Though over 40% of cardholders make minimum payments every month and face stiff interest rates, that number jumps to 6 in 10 for Gen Z adults. LendingTree, which issued the report, noted that this isn’t just a “bad idea” but is “often a sign that people are stretched thin.”
Those levels, to be clear, have stabilized and even receded slightly in the last quarter of government data. (We’re looking forward to the Q1 data.)
While that stability means this may not cause big problems for the economy, it’s another sign that the Gen Z financial picture is getting even more idiosyncratic. Opting out of saving, opening more credit cards than everyone else, kicking balances, moving out of the country to run from student loan debt — keep a finger on these trends, folks.
Economic data: ADP weekly employment change, week ended Mar. 28 (26,000 previously); PPI final demand, month-on-month, March (+1.2% expected, +0.7% previously); PPI final demand ex food and energy, month-on-month, March (+0.5% expected, +0.5% previously); PPI final demand, year-on-year, March (+3.4% previously); PPI final demand ex food and energy, year-on-year, March (+3.9% previously);
Earnings calendar: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), Albertsons (ACI), CarMax (KMX), Rent the Runway (RENT)
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended Apr. 10 (-0.8% previously); Empire manufacturing, April (-0.2 previously); Import price index, month-on-month, March (+1.3% previously); Import price index ex petroleum, month-on-month, March (+1.2% previously); Import price index, year-on-year, March (+1.3% previously); Export price index, month-on-month, March (+1.5% previously); Export price index, year-on-year, March (+3.5% previously); NAHB housing market index, April (38 previously); Fed releases Beige Book
Earnings calendar: ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Kinder Morgan (KMI), M&T Bank (MTB), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), First Horizon (FHN), Winmark (WINA)
Economic data: New York Fed services business activity, April, (-22.6 previously); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, April (18.1 previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended Apr. 11 (219,000 previously); Continuing claims, week ended Apr. 4 (1.79 million previously); Industrial production, month-on-month, March (+0.2% expected, +0.2% previously); Manufacturing production, March (+0.2% previously)
Earnings calendar: Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Prologis (PLD), BNY Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), The Travelers Companies (TRV), Infosys (INFY), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), KeyCorp (KEY), Alcoa (AA)
Friday
Economic data: No notable economic data.
Earnings calendar: Truist Financial Corporation (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street (STT), Ally Financial (ALLY)
Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.
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