Quick Read

• Nvidia (NVDA) reported Q4 FY2026 Data Center revenue of $62.31B, up 75% YoY, with Networking surging 263%, while Q1 FY2027 guidance excludes $12.5B in potential China H200/H20 revenue that could unlock if Trump-Xi trade talks produce an export carve-out.

• Trump’s China summit and dovish Fed Chair signals from Kevin Warsh remove the two largest policy overhangs on Nvidia, while hyperscaler capex commitments from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta remain locked in and insulated from rate policy changes.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $235.74 screens attractively under $250. President Trump’s China visit and growing signals that potential Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh will take a dovish stance toward AI investment reframe the two biggest overhangs on this stock: export controls and rate policy.

Nvidia sits at the center of the AI buildout. Data Center revenue hit $62.31 billion in Q4 FY2026, up 75% year over year, with Networking up 263% on NVLink fabric demand for GB200 and GB300 systems. The stock has rallied into this policy window, making the entry point critical now.

Why the Policy Window Opens the Trade

The bull case starts with what is excluded from guidance. Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 revenue outlook of roughly $78.0 billion explicitly assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China, after a $4.5 billion H20 charge in Q1 FY2026 and roughly $8.0 billion in lost H20 revenue in Q2. Any thaw on H200 exports through the Trump-Xi track is pure upside to a number already guided north of $78 billion.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks. Get them here FREE.

The rate backdrop reinforces it. The Fed funds upper bound sits at 3.75%, down 75 basis points from the September 2025 peak of 4.5%, and Warsh’s reported willingness to keep policy accommodative for AI capex protects hyperscaler spending. That spending is already locked in. OpenAI committed to 10-plus gigawatts of Nvidia systems, Anthropic to 1 gigawatt, and Meta to millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. Jensen Huang put it plainly: “Computing demand is growing exponentially, the agentic AI inflection point has arrived.”

What the Bears See at a $5.7 Trillion Market Cap

The counterargument is real. Market cap sits near $5.47 trillion, the stock trades at 46x trailing earnings, and shares have risen 11.46% in a week and 74.22% over the past year. Reddit shows retail euphoria including a viral “1240% gain on NVDA” thread, a signal that tends to precede consolidation. Add the 30% drop in B200 Blackwell GPU rental prices over a weekend and the accelerating push by Tencent and Alibaba into homegrown AI chips, and the China upside thesis faces competitive headwinds.