The ability to calculate wisely in the midst of strong emotions — fear, greed, excitement, worry — is one of the hallmark habits of a seasoned investor. To look for the real company beneath the public face, the core of its operations beneath promises, the essential nature of the business — this kind of clear-eyed analysis, more than anything else, is what’s needed in a market as richly valued as it is in 2026.
This is as true for small companies and start-ups as it is for members of the trillion-dollar club, like the newly minted Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX). Now that the most highly anticipated IPO since Facebook (now Meta Platforms) is over, let’s look closely at SpaceX’s pros and cons.
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The bull case: Rockets, AI, and the internet beamed from space
SpaceX is essentially three businesses: space technology, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). This trinity of tech does not have equal parts, however, and it appears that the most profitable one is connectivity.
In 2025, the connectivity segment (driven mostly by Starlink) generated over $11 billion in revenue — roughly three-fifths of SpaceX’s total — and left the company with over $4 billion in operating income. Starlink currently has over 10 million subscribers across more than 160 countries, a number it claims will grow to 25 million by the end of 2026.
The other two businesses — space and AI — together generated just over $7 billion of revenue, underscoring the dominance of connectivity. Here’s another figure that stresses it: Between 2023 and 2025, total revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34%. But connectivity? That segment grew at a whopping 71% CAGR.
Connectivity’s near-term total addressable market (TAM) — according to figures from SpaceX’s IPO roadshow — is $1.6 trillion, which was roughly the company’s opening valuation. Together with space and AI, SpaceX claims it can address an enormous $6 trillion market opportunity, about three times more than its current valuation.
The bear case: A remarkable company with a sky-high valuation
The bull case for SpaceX is its potential to become deeply embedded in infrastructure, with all three businesses working together to make it the defining company of the century.
