I’m pretty sure yesterday was the coldest baseball game I’ve ever attended. 

But I’m all thawed out and ready for today’s MLB picks.

Season Record 3-6-1, -3.51 Units

Dodgers at Blue Jays

Dylan Cease Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-108 DraftKings)

We have two teams headed in opposite directions here. The Dodgers are playing without Mookie Betts but look fully engaged for the moment and ride a five game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are down half their starting pitchers plus catcher Alejandro Kirk and have dropped five in a row. 

But they have their Dylan Cease on the mound and they really could use a big afternoon from their near ace. Their offense is struggling right now at a 91 wRC+ through the first 10 games and the bullpen is taxed after getting just two innings from Max Scherzer on Monday and 5.1 from Kevin Gausman last night.

So is Cease up to it? 

15.5 outs is a low number for a pitcher of his quality and history or durability. His issue is that he just doesn’t throw enough strikes. Cease has a 38.8% Ball% in his two starts this year, nearly identical to his 38% career level. He does get his share of K’s as well But despite that, he averages 5.4 IP per start over his career. Cease can get the whiffs, 28.7% K% in his career and 40.7% K% this year, but the Dodgers are tough to strike out at 20.7% K%. This is very much a leap of faith. But I’m a bit of a Cease believer and I think he steps up in a spot where his team really needs him and the Dodgers maybe take their foot off the gas a bit in an afternoon getaway day game.

Orioles at White Sox

Kyle Bradish over 5.5 K’s (-135 DraftKings)

Well, it’s a theme for me personally here as Bradish is another SP I really like who has gotten off to a shaky start. He has an ugly 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through 8.2 IP, though his 2.79 xERA tells a very different story. So does his .333 BABIP. It’s not all bad luck though as Bradish has a bloated 15.3% BB%.

I see a good chance for a get-right outing here as well. Bradish has a 26.4% K% (64th percentile) and 29.5% Whiff% (65th percentile). 

Plus he’s facing one of the easier teams to teams strikeout as the White Sox fan at a 28.9% K%, third worst in the league.