Margins are always slim this time of year for teams looking to make the NCAA Tournament, but that’s especially true this season, given just how crowded the bubble picture is. One game can turn a resume around or flip the tourney picture on its head — which made for dramatic scenes on a jam-packed Saturday that featured plenty of games of seeding import even beyond two top-five matchups in Arizona-Houston and Michigan-Duke.

Where do things stand now that the dust has settled? Plenty can and will change from now until Selection Sunday — and we’ve got some huge Big Ten action on tap on Sunday, too — but here’s how the bubble picture is shaping up after Saturday’s results. (Note: All NET ranking figures at entering play on Saturday.)

On the right side of the bubble

Auburn (15-12, 6-8)

NET ranking: 33
Quad 1+2 record: 7-12
Quad 3+4 record: 8-0

I understand the ugly overall record. But only one of those losses, against Mississippi State, came against a team not currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, and that there are plenty of quality wins to offset them. Beating Kentucky makes it five Q1 wins on the year, and that demonstrated ceiling should be enough if the Tigers can hang around .500 in a league like the SEC.

Georgia (19-8, 7-7)

NET ranking: 39
Quad 1+2 record: 10-7
Quad 3+4 record: 9-1

Just when five losses in six games appeared to have the Dawgs down and out, Mike White’s team has dug deep, following up a win over Kentucky at Rupp with another huge victory over fellow bubble team Texas on Saturday. The weak non-con schedule doesn’t help, but 10 Quad 1+2 wins sure do, and they have a chance to feel really good about their spot with a win over Vanderbilt next week.

Indiana (17-10, 8-8)

NET ranking: 37
Quad 1+2 record: 4-10
Quad 3+4 record: 13-0

Getting absolutely pantsed against both Illinois and Purdue, admittedly, not the best look. But the Hoosiers don’t have a bad loss — at Minnesota is really the only thing that comes close — and home wins over the Boilers and Wisconsin support very strong underlying metrics that suggest this is a tournament-caliber team. They have one more shot at a big dog when Michigan State comes to town next weekend, but if they just go 3-1 down the stretch, IU should be okay.

Miami (Ohio) (27-0, 14-0)

NET ranking: 48
Quad 1+2 record: 1-0
Quad 3+4 record: 23-0

I get it, that “1-0” above is tough to argue around. And sure, the Red Hawks aren’t as good as their gaudy record suggests. But at a certain point, you have to be rewarded for winning literally all of the games on your schedule. Even if Miami doesn’t snag the MAC’s autobid, I think they get in with one loss. Just please don’t make it two, guys.

TCU (17-10, 7-7)

NET ranking: 47
Quad 1+2 record: 7-8
Quad 3+4 record: 10-2

TCU might be the big winner of the weekend, topping West Virginia in a matchup with all sorts of bubble implications. There are some ugly losses on the Horned Frogs’ resume — at Colorado? really? — but at the end of the day, they’re .500 in a rugged conference with wins over Iowa State, Florida and Wisconsin (plus close losses to Michigan and Kansas). That should be enough.

Texas

NET ranking: 35
Quad 1+2 record: 7-9
Quad 3+4 record: 9-1

The loss to Georgia on Saturday was the Horns’ first in their last six games, but I still think Texas is in pretty good shape coming down the stretch. They already beat the Dawgs earlier this season, and they’ve taken down tournament competition in Vanderbilt, Alabama and NC State. Plus, the win over Missouri on Valentine’s Day could loom very large.

Texas A&M (19-8, 9-5)

NET ranking: 43
Quad 1+2 record: 8-8
Quad 3+4 record: 11-0

Four losses in a row had Bucky McMillan’s squad teetering on the brink, but they followed up a dramatic win over Ole Miss earlier in the week with a solid showing at Oklahoma on Saturday. The big wins are there, the bad losses are not, and this all feels like a tournament resume assuming they can at least manage a 2-2 finish over a tough closing stretch that includes Arkansas, Texas and Kentucky.

UCLA (18-9, 10-6)

NET ranking: 41
Quad 1+2 record: 7-9
Quad 3+4 record: 11-0

The Bruins managed to salvage a win from their three-game gauntlet against Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois in dramatic fashion, with a game-winning layup from Donovan Dent sinking the Illini in OT. The vibes have been decidedly not great for Mick Cronin’s team this year, but they’ve yet to take a bad loss, and they’ve also got a win over Purdue to fall back on. That’s enough to keep them solidly on the right side of the bubble line, but ask us again if they lose a midweek showdown with rival USC.

On the wrong side of the bubble

Belmont (25-4, 15-3)

NET ranking: 54
Quad 1+2 record: 5-1 (all Q2)
Quad 3+4 record: 18-3

Make that 12 wins in 13 games for the Bruins, who look much better under the hood than their overall record would suggest (two of their three conference losses came in OT, and the other came by one point). They’ve also proved themselves against the better teams on their schedule. The problem is there’s no statement win in the bunch, which puts Belmont in a very precarious position. They can’t afford another regular-season loss to have a chance at an at-large, and even then it’s dicey given the way the committee views mid-major schedules.

California (19-8, 7-7)

NET ranking: 61
Quad 1+2 record: 5-8
Quad 3+4 record: 13-0

Cal kept its bubble hopes very much alive by taking care of business at home against Stanford (which now seems all but eliminated from tourney contention). Beating UNC and Miami certainly helps, as does the lack of ugly losses, but I’m not sure the Golden Bears have shown enough of a ceiling to overcome their mediocre metrics. They need to beat SMU next week to keep hope alive, and they can’t afford to slip up in a tricky road trip at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to close the year.

Missouri (18-9, 8-6)

NET ranking: 59
Quad 1+2 record: 7-9
Quad 3+4 record: 11-0

Wins over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt kept Missouri afloat, but they blew a big opportunity with a loss at Arkansas on Saturday, and the closing schedule is rough: vs. Tennessee, at Mississippi State, at Oklahoma and then at home against the Hogs. Holding serve on the road is a must, and you’d sure like them to steal one of those home dates as well. Wins over Vandy, Kentucky and Florida are great, but right now that’s pretty much the only item on the Tigers’ resume.

New Mexico (21-6, 12-4)

NET ranking: 42
Quad 1+2 record: 8-5
Quad 3+4 record: 12-1

The Lobos escaped what would’ve been a brutal loss at Fresno State on Saturday night, but that performance won’t help their underlying metrics, all of which had them pegged as an extremely bubblicious team to begin with. That Quad 1+2 record probably overstates their resume somewhat, considering they’ve yet to beat either Utah State or San Diego State, but wins over VCU and Santa Clara do give New Mexico a leg up in the mid-major pecking order.

San Diego State (18-8, 12-4)

NET ranking: 44
Quad 1+2 record: 6-7
Quad 3+4 record: 11-1

SDSU scheduled in the non-con as usual, but they didn’t actually win any of those games (no, Oregon doesn’t count), and now the Aztecs are left in precarious position after a loss at Colorado State on Saturday. It’s hard for a team without an above-the-fold victory (just one Q1 win all year) to bleed so many conference losses.

VCU (21-7, 12-3)

NET ranking: 45
Quad 1+2 record: 5-7
Quad 3+4 record: 16-0

Speaking of which! The Rams have done a great job of avoiding outright bad losses. But they got swept by Saint Louis, and they lost games against NC State, Utah State, Vandy and New Mexico. At this point, a win over Virginia Tech is all VCU has to hang its hat on, and I’m not sure that’ll be enough no matter how squeaky clean the win-loss record looks.

Virginia Tech (18-10, 7-8)

NET ranking: 56
Quad 1+2 record: 8-9
Quad 3+4 record: 10-1

The Hokies took care of a must-win home date with Wake Forest on Saturday, but I think this is a case where playing in a P4 league helps inflate what is overall a pretty mediocre resume. Virginia is really the only win of note for Virginia Tech this season, as they’re 3-8 against Q1 opponents. You need to be mistake-free elsewhere to make up for that, which makes the aforementioned loss to VCU and a home whupping at the hands of Florida State so painful.

On life support

Seton Hall (19-9, 9-8)

NET ranking: 51
Quad 1+2 record: 7-7
Quad 3+4 record: 12-2

The Pirates had been hanging their hat on a lack of bad losses, then went out and dropped a home game to Depaul to complete a season sweep at the hands of the Blue Demons. They held on against Georgetown to staunch the bleeding a bit, but only one Q1 win isn’t going to get it done in a down year for the Big East. They need to at least split remaining games at UConn and vs. St. John’s, if not win both.

USC (18-9, 7-9)

NET ranking: 52
Quad 1+2 record: 9-7
Quad 3+4 record: 8-2

Being uncompetitive against a great Illinois team is one thing. Losing at home to 10-17 Oregon is another, a second Q3 loss for a team that lacks top-end wins to help balance that out. 9-7 in Q1+2 is tough to ignore, but there’s only one Q1 win among that bunch, and right now the Trojans are making this a pretty easy call. Their season comes down to the upcoming week, with games against UCLA and Nebraska.

West Virginia (16-11, 7-7)

NET ranking: 60
Quad 1+2 record: 5-10
Quad 3+4 record: 11-1

When you have four Q1 wins and a .500 record in one of the best conferences in the country, you can’t be ruled out entirely. But the Mountaineers don’t have much beyond that to hang their hat on, thanks in part to a dreadful non-con slate. At this point, WVU needs to at least finish 3-1 against Oklahoma State, BYU, Kansas State and UCF. And if they can’t beat the Cougars, even that’s probably not enough.