The Texas GOP Senate primary at a glance: Republicans fear Paxton nomination could endanger seat
Texas Republicans are heading into a bruising GOP Senate primary with significant implications not just for the Lone Star State but for the party’s hold on Congress.
Four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces a stiff challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Rep. Wesley Hunt rounding out the field ahead of the March 3 primary. A University of Houston poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn 38% to 31%, with Hunt at 17%. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two finishers advance to a May 26 runoff — where the same poll shows Paxton defeating Cornyn 51% to 40% in a head-to-head matchup.
Cornyn has dramatically outspent his rivals. According to AdImpact, Cornyn and his allies have poured or reserved nearly $59 million in political advertising across media, compared to roughly $2.3 million for Paxton over the same period — though totals vary depending on whether figures reflect spending versus reservations and which media categories are included.
Much of Cornyn-aligned spending has targeted Paxton’s ethical baggage — including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, followed by his acquittal in the Texas Senate, and allegations of marital infidelity raised by his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, in divorce proceedings. Despite the barrage, Republican strategists say the attacks have not significantly moved the needle against the attorney general.
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Paxton, a three-term attorney general who has staked his campaign on a MAGA-aligned identity, is betting that his combative conservatism and legal battles on behalf of conservative causes will carry him through. He has cast Cornyn as a creature of the Washington establishment and compared his own political perseverance to Donald Trump’s.
“When you’re over the target, when you’re fighting, they come after you,” Paxton said.
SEE ALSO: John Cornyn warns GOP of ‘Election Day massacre’ if Ken Paxton wins Senate primary
He recently ramped up his campaign with a series of rallies across Texas backed by the Lone Star Liberty PAC and began airing ads featuring video of Trump praising him. Trump, however, has declined to endorse anyone, saying he likes all three candidates.
The stakes extend well beyond Texas. Senate Republican leaders have warned that a Paxton nomination would put a reliably red seat in play and could require hundreds of millions of dollars in defensive spending in the general election — an estimate offered by party officials concerned about potential Democratic attacks — in a state Trump carried by more than 13 percentage points. Cornyn was blunter, warning of an “Election Day massacre” if Paxton tops the ticket, arguing it could cost Republicans not only his Senate seat but also drag down House candidates and threaten the GOP’s slim House majority.
National Republican Senatorial Committee strategists echoed that concern in a February memo: “Cornyn wins the general election. Paxton puts the seat at risk.”
Democrats are already eyeing the seat. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are competing for the Democratic nomination, and Democratic officials have expressed confidence that Paxton would be the more vulnerable general election opponent. A Democratic win in Texas would mark the party’s first statewide victory there since 1994.
Paxton’s supporters dismiss the electability warnings as establishment spin, noting that Cornyn made similar arguments about Trump in 2023 before reversing course and becoming one of the president’s vocal allies. Whether Texas Republican primary voters prioritize electability or ideological purity will likely determine not just who represents the state in the Senate, but how much political capital the GOP must spend defending ground it has long taken for granted.
This article is written with the assistance of generative artificial intelligence based solely on Washington Times original reporting and wire services. For more information, please read our AI policy or contact Steve Fink, Director of Artificial Intelligence, at sfink@washingtontimes.com
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