That uncharacteristic silence you hear around Major League Baseball is, for seemingly the first time since he first took a big-league mound two years ago, that no one is talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates potentially trading ace Paul Skenes.

We’ve heard, and participated in, this argument since the summer of 2025: At what point do the Pirates, who haven’t made the postseason since 2015 and frequently rank among the league’s worst teams, try to flip Skenes for as many top prospects as possible? Skenes has carved through opposing lineups en route to winning Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award, and he’s under team control through 2029.

As Opening Day nears, our attention has understandably been focused on the World Baseball Classic. But when the WBC ends, get ready to see those mock Skenes trade proposals on your X/Twitter timeline again.

Just because we’re not talking about a Paul Skenes trade now doesn’t mean it’s over

Let’s put our black and yellow cards on the table for a moment. By May 1, I guarantee that we will already have spent several weeks pitching (pun not intended) Skenes trade ideas, wondering if the Yankees or Dodgers will live up to their all-in reputations and add arguably the sport’s top pitcher.

Unfortunately for Pirates fans, those conversations will happen regardless of how Pittsburgh opens the 2026 season. A slow start will only accelerate speculation about when the Pirates will give Skenes what plenty in the baseball world might want by sending him to a contender.

But what happens if the Pirates come out of the gate and play their best ball in a decade? Would we finally put the Skenes trade talk aside and just enjoy the fact that the Pirates are finally winning with their ace on the roster?

I’m skeptical, if only for three key reasons:

• The Pirates, as currently constructed, most likely lack the roster depth to reach the postseason this year, even with three Wild Card teams. Look at the NL East alone; it’s not unrealistic to think that the Braves, Mets, and Phillies could all be in the playoffs.
• Barring significant injury, Skenes’ trade value will remain incredibly high. Even if Skenes were to have an ERA exceeding 5.00 by mid-May, do you really think that would stop teams from asking about a trade?
• The media and the internet love the thought of Skenes pitching for a major-market team built for deep playoff runs.

To be clear, this isn’t about which teams should trade for Skenes or what they would need to give up. Instead, this has to do with the topic itself.

Let’s not forget that this is the same Pirates organization that spent nearly an entire decade without signing a free agent to a multi-year deal. Skenes isn’t simply an above-average pitcher whose arbitration years the Pirates can buy out on a team-friendly deal. If Skenes suddenly became a free agent tomorrow, one would have to think that the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees would all come calling with a contract exceeding $400 million.

Could the Pirates trade Paul Skenes in 2026?

That question depends on whether we’re talking about the 2026 season or the calendar year itself. I also can’t stress enough that this is solely my gut feeling, and I know just as much as you do.

Unless Skenes publicly demanded a trade, I don’t see a realistic situation where the Pirates trade him during the 2026 season. The Yankees or Dodgers could propose a deal featuring three of their top-10 prospects, and I don’t believe the Pirates would make a move midseason.

As for next offseason? I’m still unsure that the Pirates would cut ties with Skenes so quickly. Not only is he a draw, but he’ll have three years of team control left. Could a theoretical X post or press conference requesting a trade change things? Sure, but Skenes hasn’t done so yet, and there is no indication that he’s frustrated to that level.

There is also the question of how teams might choose to spend ahead of the potential lockout. It’d be hard to blame Pittsburgh if ownership and the front office felt that keeping Skenes until a new CBA is signed makes the most sense.

For now, Skenes is a Pirate, and baseball is better with him toeing the rubber. We’ll see whether I write a near-identical sentence next March, except with “Yankee” or “Dodger” in there, instead.

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