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Lineage, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Business & Economy

Lineage, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary


Lineage, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Lineage, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary – Moby
  • Management attributes the 400 basis point sequential improvement in physical occupancy to a return to normalized seasonal patterns following multi-year inventory destocking.

  • The company has largely navigated volume guarantee adjustments, with economic occupancy now tracking closely with physical occupancy at sustainable spreads.

  • Performance was weighed down by a 9% year-over-year decline in container volumes, driven by macro headwinds in import/export markets and shifting tariff dynamics.

  • Strategic positioning is supported by 24 facilities currently under construction or ramping, representing over $1,000,000,000 in capital expected to yield over $150,000,000,000 in incremental EBITDA once stabilized.

  • Management is actively evaluating the 35% discount to NAV between public and private markets, using the Santa Maria asset sale at a mid-6% cap rate as a benchmark for private market resilience.

  • Operational focus has shifted toward ‘controlling the controllables’ through the LinnOS platform and lean management to offset inflationary pressures.

  • The U.S. portfolio is bifurcated, with 85% of NOI coming from stable or early-cycle markets, while 15% remains pressured by recent late-cycle supply additions.

  • The 2026 guidance assumes a 1% to 2% net pricing increase in warehousing, with 65% of the revenue base already renegotiated as of February.

  • Management expects a $50,000,000 annualized reduction in admin and indirect costs by year-end 2026 through centralization and AI-driven process optimization.

  • Guidance excludes potential upside from macro catalysts such as tariff resolutions, interest rate reductions, or consumer tax relief, reflecting a conservative ‘status quo’ baseline.

  • New cold storage supply is expected to slow significantly in 2026 as current market conditions do not support speculative development.

  • The company plans to utilize its investment-grade balance sheet to opportunistically consolidate the U.S. market as competitor weaknesses emerge from supply-demand imbalances.

  • The sale of the Santa Maria facility for $60,000,000 at a mid-6% cap rate serves as a strategic proof point for private real estate valuations.

  • Management idled 10 sites in 2025 to consolidate labor and improve occupancy at adjacent facilities, with further idling planned for 2026 where appropriate.

  • A non-recurring tax benefit of $0.04 per share contributed to the Q4 AFFO beat, with approximately half of the total tax favorability expected to be sustainable.

  • The Global Integrated Solutions (GIS) segment faces 2026 headwinds from lower fuel prices and modal shifts from rail to truck due to inexpensive trucking capacity.



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