We came across a bullish thesis on Fiserv, Inc. on The Pursuit of Compounding’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FISV. Fiserv, Inc.’s share was trading at $64.95 as of January 28th. FISV’s trailing and forward P/E were 10.25 and 7.99, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Fiserv (FISV), long regarded as a steady, high-quality compounder powering banks and merchants, experienced a dramatic reevaluation after its Q3 2025 report, which revealed that prior “double-digit growth” was largely illusory, fueled by hyperinflation in Argentina and aggressive financial engineering under former CEO Frank Bisignano. The revelation sent FISV’s stock plunging roughly 50%, raising questions about whether the company is a permanently impaired legacy utility facing real-time disruption from Square, Toast, and Adyen, or simply a mismanaged financial services stalwart.
The business is composed of three segments: Merchant Solutions, which includes Clover and Carat, experienced decelerating growth with GPV up only 8%—significantly behind competitors—due to exhausted captive merchant migration and rising competitive pressure; Financial Solutions, the legacy core banking software, reported a 3% organic revenue decline and margin compression as banks delayed license renewals and new fintech entrants chipped away at market share; and Corporate and Other, a drag on profitability, largely from First Data amortization, is now targeted for divestiture to free capital.
Bisignano’s tenure emphasized short-term EPS growth via leveraged buybacks and deferred investments, creating operational and client service gaps, while prior reported organic growth was misleading. Incoming CEO Michael Lyons has initiated a hard reset, reprioritizing investment, improving corporate culture, and refreshing the board with experienced banking and fintech operators, including Gordon Nixon, Gary Shedlin, and Céline Dufétel.
Lyons’ “One Fiserv” strategic plan targets five areas: instilling a client-first mindset, scaling Clover as a comprehensive SMB platform, developing differentiated embedded finance and stablecoin platforms, operational excellence through AI, and disciplined capital allocation, including monetization of non-core assets. While short-term guidance has been reset, the company’s cash generation, high-margin segments, and comprehensive transformation plan present an opportunity for value recovery, making Fiserv a compelling, albeit complex, risk/reward proposition for investors.
