While anything can happen in a seven-game tournament, there only are five teams that, on paper, have realistic chances of winning the 2026 World Baseball Classic — and even that might be pushing it. Given the talent those five teams boast, it’ll be tough for an underdog to upset them.

With that being said, none of these rosters is perfect. There’s at least one fatal flaw that even the biggest favorites have that could hold them back from hoisting the trophy.

USA: Starting pitching after pool play

What makes this year’s Team USA stand out compared to previous versions is its starting pitching. Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, the two best starting pitchers on the planet, are on the roster, as are guys like Logan Webb and Nolan McLean. As intimidating as this starting staff is on paper, though, Skubal is only going to make one start in pool play, meaning Skenes, Webb and the inexperienced McLean are going to be starting the team’s elimination games.

Obviously, this trio far exceeds any that Team USA has had in the WBC to date. And obviously, this isn’t actually a major weakness. With that being said, the American lineup and bullpen are absurdly good, and not being able to use Skubal in the elimination games could come back to haunt them. If I had to pick a weakness, not being able to use Skubal in the games that matter most would be it.

Japan: Defense

Japan manager Hirokazu Ibata revealed that the team is expected to play Seiya Suzuki, a player best suited to DH or in a corner outfield spot, in center field, with Masataka Yoshida, another player best suited for a DH role, in left field. Japan is willing to take the defensive hits, knowing that it has Shohei Ohtani at DH and an electric lineup around him, but the outfield defense looks rough, and Munetaka Murakami comes with his share of defensive questions on the infield as well.

There’s every reason to believe that Japan can outhit whatever defensive issues they might have, and if needed, they could simply deploy the light-hitting Ukyo Shuto for defense late in games. Still, with the competition expected to be fierce, every run matters, and a subpar defensive team in some spots could come back to haunt them.

Dominican Republic: Starting pitching

The Dominican Republic has one of the best lineups in the history of this tournament, and has a bullpen capable of getting key outs even if it lacks the big names that the U.S. has. Starting pitching, though, can be an issue: Cristopher Sanchez leads the way, and that’s great, but the names behind him leave a lot to be desired.

Sandy Alcantara is coming off a very down year; what will he look like against elite competition? The same can be said about Luis Severino. Brayan Bello has had a very rough start to his Spring Training; will that carry over to the WBC? I expect the D.R. to score seven or eight runs consistently, but can their pitching do enough to keep the opposition from doing the same?

Venezuela: Pitching

Venezuela’s offense isn’t quite as loaded as the Dominican Republic’s, but their lineup should rake. Their outfield consists of Ronald Acuña Jr., Jackson Chourio and Wilyer Abreu. Their infield has All-Stars like Eugenio Suarez, Willson Contreras, Gleyber Torres and Maikel Garcia. Their catcher is William Contreras. They’ll score a lot of runs. But what about the pitching?

Like the Dominican team, it’s one great starter and a whole bunch of question marks. Ranger Suarez is terrific, but should we really be expecting much out of guys like Eduardo Rodriguez and Antonio Senzatela at this point? Are Daniel Palencia and Eduard Bazardo good enough to be the best relievers in a bullpen against teams like the D.R. and the U.S.? I have my doubts. They might not be able to pitch well enough to win this tournament, even with their offense being what it is.

Mexico: Power

Like the other teams in this tournament, Mexico leaves a lot to be desired, starting pitching-wise, but that’s to be expected. Starting pitching is always hard to find in the WBC, and with guys like Andres Munoz, Robert Garcia and Victor Vodnik in their bullpen, Mexico should be able to limit the opposition somewhat. But can they score as much as these other juggernauts?

Don’t get me wrong: An offense including the likes of Randy Arozarena, Jarren Duran, Jonathan Aranda and Alejandro Kirk is going to score some runs. But does it have the power necessary to keep pace with the USA’s and Dominican Republic’s of the world? I’m not so sure. Those four players have some power, but the only one of that group to clear the 16-home run mark last season was Arozarena.

Stringing hits together isn’t always easy, and in high-pressure games, home runs are so valuable. They’re the most efficient way to score runs. I have questions about the pitching, but I wonder whether the offense can keep up with other elite units to make the pitching concerns even matter.

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