This week’s mailbag gets into the Red Sox and their offense, Masataka Yoshida‘s trade value, how far Jacob deGrom is from Hall of Fame consideration, the Brewers and Christian Yelich‘s contract, the Phillies’ and Braves’ rotations, and how revenue sharing money is spent. I’ll also give some brief thoughts on the MLBPA situation once they choose their new executive director.
Christopher asks:
Do the Red Sox have enough offense to make the playoffs?
David asks:
It’s two weeks before the trade deadline and the Red Sox are in contention but it’s painfully obvious they didn’t solve their problem with needing a power hitter. I appreciate it’s only February but look into your crystal ball. Who are their likely targets?
Dave asks:
Given the fact Luis Arraez recently signed for $12M year contract, do you still feel there is no value for some team picking up Yoshida? Both have bad marks defensively and Arraez has a higher batting average but Yoshida provides more power, so that may balance out. Worse case someone should take Yoshida for at least $8M.
Lloyd asks:
Boston has an OF glut and Duran is mentioned as the one to most likely be traded. Detroit has an INF glut and Torres is tradeable after June 15. Is there a match here, assuming both players are healthy and productive? Would Boston move Duran for Anderson or Lee, Tiger Top-10 prospects who rank in the lower end of the top 110 MLB prospects? Detroit could use an OF bat for the big push. Assuming salary/contract considerations offer no stumbling block, is this something that would work?
The Red Sox continue to have room for a major addition at second or third base, given that recent addition Caleb Durbin can play either spot. Such a pickup would bump Durbin or Marcelo Mayer to the bench, which already has a pair of infielders in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Romy Gonzalez. (Or Mayer could return to Triple-A, where he’s only played 43 games).
It’s worth keeping in mind that the most accurate projection system, The Bat X, has Durbin posting an 85 wRC+ this year, Mayer at 86, and Kiner-Falefa at 69. Gonzalez is at 102, but he’s done almost all his damage against left-handed pitching. Even veteran shortstop Trevor Story is only at 97 in that projection system. Throw in catcher Carlos Narvaez at 83 and Ceddanne Rafaela at 88, and there’s a pretty good chance five of nine Red Sox lineup spots feature subpar offense.
Certainly, there is room for a Mayer breakout or a Kristian Campbell bounceback (Campbell is outfield-focused). Durbin and Narvaez could sustain more of last year’s success. Story may hit like he did from June onward last year. Rafaela flashed brilliance at the plate for a couple months.
But that’s quite a few “ifs,” and the club is reliant on good health from 33-34-year-olds Story and Willson Contreras.
Offense isn’t everything, which is why FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a healthy 60.1 shot at the playoffs this year. The club projects to get a lot of value out of its outfield and DH spots; they’re fifth in baseball in total WAR for those four spots. The opposite is true of Boston’s infield, which rates 26th. And that does account for the club’s likely improved infield defense.
The Red Sox rank first in all of baseball for projected starting pitcher WAR. About 72% of that value is coming from the trio at the top: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez. While the Sox do have a wealth of solid depth options behind them, it’s fair to say a major injury to Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Roman Anthony, or Rafaela could knock them out of the playoff picture. I’m sure you could say that about the top five players of any team, but three of these are pitchers. Crochet and Suarez have lengthy injury histories, and Gray is 36.
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