The Padres are adding Walker Buehler on a minor league contract, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The Excel Sports Management client will aim to win a rotation job during Spring Training.
San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. Canning is coming back from a June Achilles tear. He might begin the season on the injured list but should be in the rotation once he’s healthy.
The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.
A two-time All-Star, Buehler was a borderline ace for most of his time with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in 2022. The surgery cost him the entire ’23 season, and he returned with a 5.38 ERA across 16 regular season starts the following year. Buehler pitched well in the postseason and wound up closing out the 2024 World Series. The Red Sox bet that was the beginning of a return to form, but his $21.05MM free agent deal with Boston was a disappointment.
Buehler was rocked for a 5.45 ERA across 23 appearances with the Red Sox. They flirted with a move to the bullpen before pulling the plug altogether, releasing him at the end of August. Buehler latched on with the Phillies and made three appearances to close the regular season. While he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia, he only struck out eight of 57 batters faced (14%).
Opponents destroyed his four-seam fastball, hitting .277 with a .553 slugging percentage against the pitch. Buehler’s 94 mph average velocity was down a tick from the previous season and almost three miles per hour below where it had been between 2019-20. The spin rates on his four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve have dropped precipitously since his peak. He has had a much more difficult time missing bats, both within and outside the strike zone. Hitters have done a better job laying off stuff outside the zone, leading to a career-high 10.8% walk rate last season.
Although the trend lines aren’t encouraging, Buehler is only 31 and still has league average velocity. The Padres aren’t committed to a roster spot or a guaranteed salary, so there’s no harm in gauging his form during Spring Training. It should be mostly an open competition for at least one rotation spot.
Buehler might not begin the season in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the job. He was an Article XX(b) free agent — a player with six years of service time who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign minor league deals at least 10 days before Opening Day have a trio of opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Buehler can trigger an out clause and explore other opportunities during the final week of Spring Training if the Padres don’t commit to carrying him on the active roster.
