The bad news every quarterback-needy team needs to hear

Welcome to the 2026 NFL offseason, a landscape so fraught with risk that it threatens to set quarterback-needy franchises back a decade. While ESPN’s Ben Solak has correctly identified the “doom and gloom” atmosphere pervading the league, the true depth of the crisis lies not just in a lack of talent but in the deceptive nature of the available options.

General managers are staring down a barrel where the safe choices are traps and the gambles might be the only way to survive.

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NFL Draft, Fernando Mendoza Mirage

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (15) talks to the crowd on the podium after the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.

The 2026 draft class is headlined by Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner widely projected as the first overall pick. Solak notes the class is “extremely thin” behind him, effectively crowning Mendoza by default. However, a closer look at the scouting reports suggests Mendoza may be a false idol for a desperate franchise.

According to a January scouting brief from Sports Info Solutions, Mendoza “lacks big-time arm strength” and is “not adept at multiple progressions,” thriving primarily on pre-snap reads within Curt Cignetti’s RPO-heavy system. His profile reads less like a franchise savior quarterback and more like a high-end game manager (a “Matt Leinart with better PR,” as one AFC scout anonymously described him).

If the Raiders select him at No. 1, they aren’t acquiring a Patrick Mahomes. They are acquiring a distributor that requires a fully integrated ecosystem to function. That isn’t a disaster in a vacuum, but for a team rebuilding from scratch, it is a catastrophic misallocation of resources.

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Radioactive Veteran Quarterback Market

Dec 7, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) walks on the field after the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

If the draft is a mirage, the trade market is a financial minefield. Solak points to Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa as the top options, but “winning on the margins” with these contracts is mathematically impossible.

The financial toxicity of these deals cannot be overstated. As detailed by Over The Cap, a trade for Tagovailoa doesn’t just cost draft capital. It comes with a contract that would trigger a record-setting $99 million dead cap hit for Miami if he were cut, forcing them to demand significant compensation to move him. For the acquiring team, they are inheriting a quarterback who was benched in favor of seventh-rounder Quinn Ewers in late 2025 after defenses solved the Mike McDaniel offense.

Murray’s situation is equally perilous. Recovering from a foot injury and posting career-low efficiency metrics on throws over 10 yards, Murray carries a contract with over $60 million in guarantees that an acquiring team would likely have to absorb. Trading for Murray isn’t a “veteran dart throw” as Solak suggests. It is a marriage to a declining asset with an anchor of a contract.

Hidden Gem Signal-Callers: Malik Willis & Garrett Nussmeier

In this chaos, the smart money isn’t chasing safety… It’s chasing traits. This is where Solak’s dismissal of the secondary market misses the mark.

Green Bay’s Malik Willis is the most efficient gamble on the board. In his limited 2025 action, Willis sometimes dominated. SumerSports analytics tracked him with a top-tier explosive run rate, and in his spot starts, he posted a 145.5 passer rating, throwing for 422 yards and three touchdowns with zero turnover-worthy plays.

Paying Willis $26 million APY is a bargain for that athletic upside compared to the nine-figure commitments required for Murray or Tagovailoa.

Similarly, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier offers value that the “thin draft” narrative ignores. Despite being benched in 2025 for decision-making issues, reports from the Senior Bowl via Steelers Now indicate he “emerged as a top Day 2 pick,” flashing elite arm talent that dwarfs Mendoza’s. In a league starving for passers who can threaten tight windows, Nussmeier represents a high-reward swing for a team with the coaching infrastructure to fix his vision.

Verdict

The 2026 offseason is indeed a disaster, but only for teams unwilling to embrace volatility. The safe path of drafting Mendoza or trading for a high-profile veteran is paved with mediocrity and salary-cap ruin. The path to contention lies in the margins, drafting the arm talent of Nussmeier or signing the athleticism of Willis, and hoping you have the coaching staff to strike gold.