Ukraine’s actual production of Patriot missiles may not start for years, despite President Trump’s announcement this week that the country could soon have a license to manufacture the defensive missiles.

The two primary U.S. defense contractors that make the Patriot system, RTX and Lockheed Martin, have not yet partnered with any Ukrainian businesses to build production facilities on Ukrainian soil.

The Patriot, an interceptor missile meant to stop incoming missile attacks, relies on a solid rocket motor. The White House has ordered the entire U.S. defense industrial base to increase production of those critical components. Over $1 billion in Pentagon money has gone toward increasing U.S. production capacity.

One government official told The Washington Times that it’s “no secret” that solid rocket motor production in the U.S. is under strain.

Now Ukraine will face those same challenges, even if it partners with neighboring countries to produce the new munitions.

In his comments this week at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Mr. Trump seemed to acknowledge there are significant production questions that haven’t been answered.

“It’s a defensive situation, as opposed to an offensive,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday. “Let’s say, ‘Make them yourself.’ We haven’t informed the company of that yet, but that’ll work out all right.”

Ukraine is racing to build its air defenses amid increasing Russian ballistic missile attacks. The Russian barrages targeting the capital Kyiv have killed at least 50 people in recent days. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed recently that his country badly needs more Patriots.

Across Ukraine the Patriot has become known as the most reliable weapon that the nation has to protect against Russian ballistic missiles. The surface-to-air defense system is proven and reliable after years of war in Ukraine. It’s also been a critical part of air defense in Israel and around the Persian Gulf, with key Mideast allies relying heavily on Patriots to shoot down Iranian missiles.

But any Patriot production facility built in Ukraine would immediately become a high-priority target for Russia. Aside from that Russian threat, Ukraine faces other challenges and won’t be able to produce Patriots overnight, analysts say.

Jonathan Rue, an adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security and an advisory partner at MVP Ventures, isn’t holding his breath for the first missiles to come off a production line.

“The licensing itself, that’s not the limiting factor,” Mr. Rue said. “Ultimately, the limiting factor is what industry can produce. That’s not only at the Lockheed Martin or prime-contractor level. It’s at the tier two, tier three, and lower-tier supplier levels.”

Even when larger defense firms are willing to build the missile, supplies of critical chemicals remain a key piece of the equation. And those chemical supplies are already stretched.

“Over there, I still think you run into the same problem,” Mr. Rue said of possible production in or near Ukraine. “You’re placing additional orders for programs that rely on the same batch of small suppliers further down the supply chain.”

The U.S. industrial base has suffered from the same shortfalls. As international demand for air defense capabilities has gone up, the single source of ammonium perchlorate in the U.S., a critical chemical in solid rocket motors, has been squeezed to max capacity.

“The industrial base, ideally, looks like a pyramid. You have the larger companies at the top, and beneath them the supplier base branches out with multiple suppliers for the same items,” Mr. Rue said. “But right now, it feels much more vertical, at least for certain key programs, some of the most important ones.”

Key manufacturers are pushing millions of dollars into new and revamped production lines in the U.S. to speed the resupply of the rocket and missile arsenal after transfers to Israel, Ukraine and other global hot spots. The Pentagon and Congress are encouraging companies to deliver finished products as soon as possible. The output capacity of the U.S. rocket supply chain in 2026 is on track to be nearly six times current production for large solid rocket motors and at least triple that for smaller tactical solid rocket motors, according to defense industry leaders.

Ukraine has none of that head start to produce the missiles it needs in the next few months.

“Assuming the White House can get Lockheed Martin or RTX to enter into this contract with Ukraine, then the clock can really start,” Mr. Rue said.