Chief Market Strategist Says Japan and South Korea Could Be Flashing Early Warning Signs for Investors
Quick Read
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LRCX pulls 87% of quarterly revenue from Asia-Pacific; ASML supplies Samsung and SK Hynix EUV tools, making both direct KOSPI demand plays.
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Qualcomm handset revenue fell 13% year over year on memory constraints and Chinese OEM softness, with a beta of 1.6 amplifying any macro selloff.
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Maley warns crowded CFTC short yen positions could accelerate a selloff if the BOJ intervenes, while a VIX near 16 signals markets are fully complacent.
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Miller Tabak Chief Market Strategist Matt Maley believes investors should keep a close eye on two often-overlooked warning signs: the Japanese yen and South Korea’s KOSPI index. During CNBC’s Morning Call Sheet yesterday, he argued that a reversal in the popular yen carry trade and continued weakness in Korean stocks could signal broader trouble for global markets.
For investors with exposure to semiconductor equipment and chip stocks, those signals could prove especially important, as many of the industry’s largest customers are concentrated in Asia.
Why a Japanese Yen Reversal Could Rattle Global Markets
Maley pointed to crowded positioning against the Japanese yen as a potential accelerant if the Bank of Japan is forced to defend its currency. “There’s some speculation that the BOJ will have to come in at some point and defend their currency. And we certainly know from the CFTC data that the short position in the yen is very, very large. So a lot of people are on one side of the boat. So if that situation starts to unwind and the carry trade starts to unwind, that could put some pressure on the markets.”
The USD/JPY rate stood at 161.93 as of July 6, 2026, and the VIX closed at 15.81 on July 3, 2026, sitting in the 22.6th percentile of its 12-month distribution and well below the 18.088 average.
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The Overseas Market Maley Says Investors Should Watch Closely
On Korea, Maley reached back a quarter-century for his analogy. “I just note that in 2000, when the bubble burst in 2000, the KOSPI was the first one to go down several months in advance of the rest of the world. So it’s important to keep a close eye on that.” He added that the KOSPI has been very choppy over the last month, with Samsung set to report earnings this week and SK Hynix’s ADR set to begin trading in the U.S. Both are memory chipmakers and major customers of U.S.-listed equipment and design names that investors can trade.
