Bullet point summary by AI
- Host nation Mexico secured their spot in the World Cup knockout rounds with a 1-0 win over South Korea.
- South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa are now fighting for the remaining two group advancement spots.
- The final group games on Wednesday will determine which teams join Mexico in the next stage of the tournament.
The World Cup has its first official knockout rounds participant. Host nation Mexico punched their ticket out of the group stage with a 1-0 win over South Korea on Thursday night. They are the first-place finisher in Group A regardless of what happens in their next game. The celebrations across the country can begin, especially because a first-place finish means they’ll stay on home soil for the Rounds of 32 and 16 if they get there.
Now, South Korea, Czechia and South Africa are in a fight for second and third place, with their World Cup lives at stake.
Group A standings
What’s next for Mexico: Knockout round scenarios
- Final group game: vs. Czechia on Wednesday, June 24
- Minimum result to advance: Clinched first
Mexico are moving on to the knockout rounds. With the Czechia game no longer holding any stakes, their attention can turn to the knockout rounds.
As the winner of Group A, Mexico will face the best third-place team from Group C, E, F, H or I.
The most likely third-place team from each of those groups:
- Group C: Scotland
- Group E: Ecuador
- Group F: Sweden
- Group H: Saudi Arabia/Cape Verde
- Group I: Senegal
What South Korea needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. South Africa on Wednesday, June 24
- Minimum result to advance: Draw
- Most likely outcome: Advance in second place
South Korea will be very disappointed to have not gotten a point out of Mexico, especially considering their late opportunities. A loss puts the pressure on them with South Africa coming up.
There’s a world where South Korea advances even if they lose, but that’s an unlikely scenario. There’s also a world where they finish fourth—by losing to South Africa while Czechia beats Mexico. So it’s best not to take any chances. A draw would put them on four points. With the head-to-head tiebreaker over Czechia, they’d place second even if Czechia beats Mexico.
Whoever finishes second in Group A will face the second-place team in Group B. That could be Canada or Switzerland.
What Czechia needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. Mexico on Wednesday, June 24
- Minimum result to advance: Win
- Most likely outcome: Advance in third place
A 1-1 draw against South Africa was costly for Czechia. With just one point to their name, Repre must win their final game against host nation Mexico to have any hopes of advancing to the knockouts.
Fortunately for Czechia, Mexico beat South Korea and clinched the group. While they shouldn’t expect the Mexicans to sleepwalk in the final game, it matters that the hosts don’t need a result of any kind. They could rest players.
It’s widely agreed two points won’t be enough to go through as a third-place team, which is the highest Czechia will place if they fail to win. But a win will put them on four points, which should be enough. They’d need South Korea to lose to South Africa in their final game to move on in second place.
What South Africa needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. South Korea on Wednesday, June 24
- Minimum result to advance: Win
- Most likely outcome: Won’t advance
A second-half second penalty kick against Czechia gave new life to South Africa after a truly disastrous opening loss. However, Mexico’s win over South Korea makes the mountain that much harder to climb. Czechia get the easier matchup with the host that has already clinched. South Africa faces a South Korea that needs a point at least to secure second place.
Simply put, South Africa must win to have any hopes of moving on.
Midfielder Sphephelo Sithole will be back from his red card suspension for the final group game. However, Themba Zwane was handed a three-game ban for his serious foul conduct, so he won’t be available unless an appeal goes through in time. And Teboho Mokoena picked up another yellow card, which has him suspended as well.
Tiebreakers are a serious problem for South Africa, if it comes to that. As it stands, their goal differential is -2 and they’ve only scored one. Team conduct is the next tiebreaker and unless something significant changes, they won’t be beating anyone in that regard with four yellow cards and two reds.
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