Spring ball has come and gone, which means we’ve officially reached the dog days of the college football calendar. It’s going to be a long slog toward the start of fall camp and Labor Day weekend give us some actual football to yell at each other about again.

Until that day comes, though, we thought we’d do some good, old-fashioned predicting. Team totals have become a rite of passage this time of year, a way to put your money where your mouth is regarding which teams you’re buying and selling in the season to come. Looking to know where to place your bets for 2026? We’re here to help with full over/under predictions for every single power-conference team.

ACC

Clemson (over 7.5)

Look, I know that 2025 was bad. And yet, despite all of the dysfunction, Clemson still nearly cleared this number at 7-5. The ceiling for Dabo Swinney’s has slowly evaporated, but the floor remains pretty dang high, and I think Vegas has overcorrected a bit here.

The skill positions are still dripping with potential. The defense should once again be solid, even if it’s no longer at the level we grew accustomed to under Brent Venables. If Chris Vizzina can at least be competent in replacing Cade Klubnik, the Tigers should once again solid — and with this schedule, “solid” should absolutely result in eight-plus wins. Outside of a trip to Baton Rouge and a home date with Miami, every game on Clemson’s slate feels winnable, with Cal, Florida State, Duke and Syracuse as the only other road trips.

Miami (FL) (over 10.5)

I’m usually loath to take the over with this little margin for error, and yet … I mean, do you see Miami losing two games against this schedule? Split road dates at Notre Dame and Clemson, and the road will part before the Canes: at Stanford, Florida A&M, at Wake Forest, Central Michigan, Florida State, Pitt, at North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College all feel pretty secure. With Darian Mensah at the controls of a dangerous offense and tons of defensive talent still around, this team is clearly still the class of the ACC.

Virginia Tech (under 7.5)

I want to be very clear here: In no way is this an indictment of James Franklin’s future in Blacksburg, or of Virginia Tech’s decision to hire him. I still think it was a home-run decision and the best possible pivot from the Brent Pry era. (And hey, keeping Pry around to coach the defense should be a far better use of his coaching talents.)

This is more about the schedule than anything else. If the Hokies can’t steal one at Clemson, at SMU or at Miami, they need to go 7-1 against VMI, Old Dominion, at Maryland, at Boston College, at California, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Stanford and Virginia. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is more than reasonable, but I don’t trust incoming QB Ethan Grunkemeyer quite enough to pull the trigger there with so many tossup games.

Big Ten

Indiana (under 10.5)

Lord knows I’m not doubting Curt Cignetti or this program moving forward; Indiana will once again be very, very good at football, which is a sentence that will probably always feel weird to type out. Again, though, betting on an 11-1 finish leaves you with very little margin for error — the Hoosiers only get one mulligan, and that’s it.

Which, considering they get Ohio State and USC at home plus road trips to Michigan, Washington and Nebraska (don’t laugh), feels like a tough ask. I wouldn’t be stunned if Indiana only lost one of those games, but I think 10-2 is a bit more likely unless new QB Josh Hoover can iron the turnovers completely out of his game.

Michigan (under 8.5)

Kyle Whittingham comes with quite the track record, but it’s worth remembering that he was experiencing some diminishing returns towards the end of his tenure at Utah, and he inherits a Wolverines team with some outstanding offensive questions that have me leaning under here.

To be fair, that has as much to do with the schedule as it does with Bryce Underwood’s growth under center. Michigan gets Oklahoma and Indiana at home and has to travel to both Oregon and Ohio State, which doesn’t even cover live games like Penn State and Iowa. If we assume they drop road games against the Ducks and Buckeyes, they’ll need to at least split the two big home games to have a shot at nine wins, and I simply trust the Sooners and Hoosiers a little more right now.

Ohio State (over 9.5)

This might be the win total I waffled on the most. Ohio State lost a ton of defensive talent to the NFL, and while few programs reload like the Buckeyes, this schedule will punish any kind of adjustment period — from a road trip to Texas in Week 1 through games at Iowa, Indiana and USC and home dates against Oregon and Michigan. Only losing two of those games will be easier said than done, even if Matt Patricia rebuilds his unit on the fly.

I do think they can get to 10-2, though, largely because of the floor this offense provides. Ultimately, I just think they’re more talented than every team on their schedule save for the Horns and the Ducks. Split the tough road tests and take care of business in the Shoe, and we cash.

Penn State (under 9.5)

Don’t panic, Penn State fans. Projecting the Nittany Lions to win nine games is by no means a slight; really, it just means I have enough questions about Rocco Becht and this retooled defense that I don’t think they can get wins vs. USC, at Michigan and at Washington. They could absolutely steal any one of those games, to be clear. But combine all the roster turnover with a potential pitfall against Minnesota, and it’s just a bit dicier than I’d like.

Big 12

Texas Tech (under 10.5)

Along with a blue blood we’ll get to shortly, the Red Raiders were one of just two teams in the country to open with a win total of 11.5 — until quarterback Brendan Sorby was embroiled in a gambling scandal that threw his eligibility into question, that is, after which it promptly dropped down to 10.5.

But Texas Tech will still be a very good team even if Sorsby doesn’t play a down in 2026; their unprecedentedly aggressive approach in the portal has created a deep and balanced roster, as we saw during their College Football Playoff run last season. Plus, this schedule is a dream: Tech avoids Utah and BYU and gets their toughest games — Houston, Arizona, TCU and Arizona State — at home. This team proved last year that it was in a difference weight class than the rest of this conference, and while they’ll trip up at some point, I think they’ll make full use of the extra mulligan here.

Colorado (under 4.5)

It just doesn’t feel like Deion Sanders is gaining traction as he enters year four at Colorado. The defense should be better, and I’m excited to see how former blue-chip QB JuJu Lewis grows into the starting role, but last season was an object lesson that it takes much more than a few flashy names to build a functional football team. Coach Prime is once again flipping most of his roster, and with star left tackle Jordan Seaton off to LSU, I don’t think he has the depth to get through what is a fairly dicey schedule — outside of Weber State and maybe UCF at home, there isn’t a single game I feel sure about projecting the Buffs to win.

Notre Dame: Under 11.5

In the wake of the Brendan Sorsby situation at Texas Tech, Notre Dame is now the only FBS team with an over/under set at 11.5 wins. Yes, that’s right: The Irish will need to go undefeated for the over to cash.

Which, to be clear, is very much possible — both because this roster will be loaded and because the schedule will once again be a breeze. Really, there are only three games you can envision Notre Dame losing: at BYU on Oct. 17, and then home dates with Miami (in a delicious revenge game) and then SMU in November. The Irish responded to being frozen out of last year’s Playoff by making an even easier path for themselves.

I just can’t get my head around betting on that sort of high-wire act, though, no matter how good the team and how friendly the schedule. The game against the Hurricanes is a true tossup, and BYU has the sort of defense and raucous home environment that could make things dicey. Notre Dame has the talent to run through these 12 games, I just don’t want to bet on them doing so when there’s no room for error.

SEC

Alabama (over 8.5)

The schedule gods were relatively kind to Kalen Deboer as he enters what feels like a make-or-break year three in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have to go into Death Valley to face LSU, and there’s the annual date with Georgia as well. Other than that, though, there isn’t much that should scare this Alabama team — their second-toughest home game is a Texas A&M team that lost its best receiver and its offensive coordinator from last year’s team, and their second-toughest road trip is a Tennessee squad that will be breaking in a brand new quarterback. And while losses to Georgia and LSU would likely send this fan base into an existential crisis, Bama would still have one more loss to work with in order to get to nine wins and cash this over.

LSU (over 8.5)

Look, guys, I know that Lane Kiffin is tedious, and I know that most of us outside the state of Louisiana are rooting for him to fail. But the facts are the facts, and they tell us that Kiffin has assembled a pretty impressive roster for his first year at the helm in Baton Rouge, with Sam Leavitt piloting the offense and several high-profile defensive transfers. They get Alabama, Texas, Clemson and Texas A&M at home; outside of an all-timer of a trip back to Kiffin’s old stomping grounds at Ole Miss, there isn’t a road game that the Tigers should be truly scared of. Beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and it’s hard to see how they don’t get to at least 9-3.

Texas (over 9.5)

The schedule is never easy for the Horns, but hey, at least they get Ohio State in Austin this time around — and without a bevy of defensive talent lost to the NFL. And really, even if they lose that Week 1 clash, there’s still a realistic path to 10 wins here: If they win two out of three of their tricky road trips (at LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M), the only non-OSU team with a shot to beat them at home is an Ole Miss squad that’s reloading on the fly. There’s just too much talent here, with a revamped offensive line and a ton of skill-position talent around Arch Manning, for me to see them going 9-3 or worse.

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