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Hawkish FOMC Pressures Gold; Buyers Defend ,500 Support
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Hawkish FOMC Pressures Gold; Buyers Defend $4,500 Support


Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets — and may continue to in the future.

So, what kind of week has it been?

Here’s what you need to know:

  1. Gold will close near $4,625 on Friday after rebounding from a Wednesday break below $4,550 that briefly threatened the major $4,500/oz psychological support level.

  2. Wednesday’s FOMC delivered a hawkish “no-change” decision on an 8-4 final vote — the most dissents in any FOMC vote since late 1992 — with three governors specifically pushing back on the committee’s “easing bias” language and signaling no rate cuts in 2026.

  3. Buyers in Asia and London stepped in below $4,550 on Wednesday evening to cover shorts and establish new longs, sparking a Thursday rally of nearly +2%; renewed Iran peace overtures and the first sustained run of US Dollar weakness since the bombing campaign began are lending additional support, though elevated crude oil keeps a tight lid on any upside.

  4. Next week’s main focus will be the April Jobs Report on Friday and a busy slate of public remarks from key Fed officials, with weekend headlines on US-Iran peace talks a possible early-week catalyst.

So, What Kind of a Week Has It Been?

Spot gold prices have slipped again this week, although the yellow metal managed to rebound in the second half of the week and improve from a position that implied a serious risk to prices remaining above $4,000/oz in the near-to-medium term. With the Federal Reserve delivering a hawkish “no-change” announcement on Wednesday, and amid an uneventful week regarding the peace-or-war talks between the US and Iran, gold prices slid during the first half of the week. The nadir reached on Wednesday saw spot break below $4,550, threatening failure of support at a major psychological level ($4,500/oz).

Had gold closed below that mark on Wednesday, there stood a very real possibility of a dramatic selloff when markets reopened in the evening. Instead, investors in Asia and London seemed happy to step in and cover short positions or else establish new (very optimistic) longs. Gold managed to rally nearly +2% on Thursday to $4,625, a level the precious metal has stuck close to through the end of the week. As reports have circulated again near the weekend of a new peace proposal put forth by Iran, gold is likely also being supported here by a US Dollar that has seen the first sustained run of weakening since the US bombing campaign against Iran began. (However, crude oil remains very elevated and holds a tight lid on any new upside for gold.)

Most Dissents Since 1992: A Hawkish FOMC Hold

The hawkish tone of Wednesday’s FOMC was not a result of the committee’s decision (which was, as expected, to leave rates unchanged) but the details behind it. Namely, a final vote of 8-4 — the most dissents in an FOMC vote since late 1992 — and the fact that three of those dissents were specifically on the basis of disagreeing with the “easing bias” written into the committee’s joint statement. This is an officious way of saying that three key central bankers at the Fed are publicly pulling back from projecting any interest rate cuts in 2026. (This concern about rates lying “higher for longer” was mildly exacerbated later in the week as many analysts now expect the Bank of England and the ECB to, in fact, raise interest rates within the next few months.)

Powell’s Final FOMC as Chair

Also notable at the Federal Reserve, although its real impact in a macroeconomic sense is still tough to quantify, this week saw Jerome Powell’s final Fed meeting and press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve, with appointee Kevin Warsh set to take over. Of course, in a change from the trend of the 21st century, Powell has said that he intends to stay on as a Governor of the Fed with no specific plans for stepping down from that post.

Looking Ahead

While there may be some expectation over the weekend (with markets closed) of an agreement or other critical development in the US-Iran peace talks, the main things we expect to focus gold traders’ and investors’ attention on next week will be the April Jobs Report due on Friday and (presumably) a busy slate of public remarks from key Fed officials.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.



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