Overrated: No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers

• QB downgrade
• Championship hangover
• Inevitable transfer misses

I’m so sorry Curt Cignetti. As much as I believe in Indiana’s head coach, I can’t deny that the Hoosiers are heading for a dip. Losing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is going to have a cost. So will the departures of Top 50 NFL Draft prospects like wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds.

Let’s focus on the QB situation. Josh Hoover threw for 3,445 yards for TCU in 2025 with 28 touchdowns. However, his interception rate went up. In fact, he threw more interceptions each year he started in Fort Worth: nine in 2023, 11 in 2024 and 13 in 2024. Mendoza improved as a quarterback with the Hoosiers, so it’s not fair to expect Hoover to stagnate. There’s just a difference between improving at a reasonable rate and playing at the level Mendoza managed in 2025. Moreover, Mendoza had something about him even at Cal. His intangibles elevated the Bears and then the Hoosiers. I’m not sure Hoover has that same quality.

Indiana will still be a contender in the Big Ten and a formidable team to play. However, they’re more likely to stumble this time around after losing so many key players. Cignetti brought in a bunch of high-profile recruits to fill those gaps and I’m sure many of them will do well. But transfer trends across the country suggest he’s bound to miss on more than a couple. There are many things that can make a key transfer unsuccessful, from fit to chemistry to just needing more time to find footing. Dealing with one too many of those issues can move a team out of the top 10.

Underrated: No. 7 Miami Hurricanes

• QB upgrade
• Clear path to CFP

Indiana may have beaten Miami in the national title game, but I’m more bullish on the ‘Canes ending up right back there than the Hoosiers. For one, Darian Mensah is a much more exciting quarterback than Carson Beck ever was. It felt all along that Beck was a product of his team. He was fine, but not a player who made the difference. Mensah was that at both Tulane and Duke. Adding his 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns to just six interceptions will make Miami’s offense far more formidable, especially with Mark Fletcher and Malachi Toney returning.

The Hurricanes defense was elite last season, but they suffered severe losses up front with Rueben Bain Jr. Akheem Mesidore leaving for the NFL. Missouri’s Damon Wilson II should help patch that gap. Of course, as with Indiana, there’s every chance Miami misses with some of these transfers they’re depending on.

In the end, I’m leaning on Mensah to make that much of a difference with an already established corps of skill position talent.

There’s also the conference factor. Even though Indiana’s schedule is very far from the nation’s toughest, they have to get through the Big Ten with games against Ohio State, USC, Michigan and Washington with the latter two coming on the road. Miami’s slate conference slate just reads as more manageable, even if they have to face Notre Dame on the road out of conference.

Overrated: No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels, No. 11 LSU Tigers, No. 14 Michigan Wolverines, No. 15 Penn State Nittany Lions

• Coaching changes
• Roster changes
• Upheaval has a cost

I’m bunching all these schools up for one big reason: Coaching changes.

Maybe all four of those squads will hit the ground running under their new staffs. It’s far more likely they’ll all take a step back as they adjust to the recent instability around their programs.

Ole Miss has the advantage of returning Trinidad Chambliss and maintaining a bit of continuity with Pete Golding. However, their staff was gutted by Lane Kiffin on his way out. I wouldn’t bet on this being a top 10 squad by season’s end.

Kiffin managed to bring along much of his staff, but he’s taking over an LSU team with only eight returning starters and years of upheaval. This is a full-blown roster rebuild. On the plus side, Kiffin had the resources to go on a shopping spree. We’ve seen rosters flip quickly in college football, but the Tigers will still experience inevitable growing pains. In all his previous stops, Kiffin has needed time to put his mark on a program. And they won’t have a ton of time to find their feet with Clemson, Ole Miss and Texas A&M among their first four games. Is this a top 12 team? Eh, we’ll see.

Michigan’s off-the-field distractions have been extreme but they did end up with a strong hire of Kyle Whittingham. I’m a big fan of Whit. He’s consistently one of the most underrated head coaches in college football. Where I doubt him is the ability to step right in and keep the Wolverines in the top 15, even with Bryce Underwood returning. The offense needs a complete makeover and the defense returns just three starters. An early out-of-conference date with Oklahoma is daunting, but the back half of the season is nightmarish. UM gets Penn State and Indiana at home plus Oregon and Ohio State on the road in their last seven games. That’s the seventh-toughest schedule in the country per CFN.

Meanwhile, Penn State has just four returning starters and a roster that saw more than 40 players depart. Matt Campbell has a big job on his hands and he’s hoping to do that by bringing in his guys from Iowa State. There’s just far too much upheaval to account for, especially entering a significantly tougher conference. At least the schedule gods gave the Nittany Lions a significant mercy in 2026. Their schedule is shockingly manageable, missing Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. A home game against USC and road trips to Michigan and Washington are their toughest games of the season.

I couldn’t tell you which of these four teams won’t finish the season ranked, but I’m confidence at least one, if not two will tumble out.

Underrated: No. 20 USC Trojans

• High-performing returning QB
• Leads CFB in returning starters
• Gary Patterson factor

Full disclosure: I am a USC fan. Important context: I do not believe in Lincoln Riley.

Even so, I think USC is underrated at No. 20 and it’s not just my bias. The Trojans return 15 starters including five (arguably six) on the offensive line. Losing NFL draft prospects Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane is a blow to the offense that ranked fourth in FPI last year. USC has recruited the position well enough recently to feel confident in the youth coming through to step up. Most importantly, quarterback Jayden Maiava is back for his third year working with Riley. Trends show the QB whisperer sees peak performance with third-year QBs.

It’s not like Maiava needs to improve all that much to toss his name in the Heisman conversation. He was already the leading passer in the Big Ten in terms of yardage. And he led all of CFB with a 91.2 QBR and 98.1 EPA. When Riley has an elite quarterback, things simply go better for his teams.

The Trojans also have a new defensive coordinator after D’Anton Lynn left for Penn State. Former TCU head coach Gary Patterson comes in to give USC a facelift on that side of the ball. I wouldn’t count on him turning the Trojans into a brick wall overnight, but his track record as a defensive mind should provide a boost.

USC finished last season ranked No. 20. Would I be surprised if Riley stagnated? At this stage, no. However, right now I think we’re more likely to see a top 15 USC than one in the 20s.

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