TD Cowen has trimmed its price target on Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin (BTC) holding giant Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR).
In a note to investors on April 9, analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete attributed the revised target to a “lower bitcoin price deck” and a reduction in the valuation multiple applied to the company’s projected Bitcoin gains.
Analysts slashed Strategy’s price target by 20% from $440 to $350. However, they kept their Buy rating in place.
They now project Strategy’s BTC gain at $7.87 billion for fiscal year 2026, down from $10.17 billion in 2025.
But their core thesis remains intact that Strategy’s value lies in its ability to convert market appetite for volatility into Bitcoin on an effectively leveraged basis.
TD Cowen’s base case assumes that Bitcoin will reach $140,000 by December 2026, with Strategy acquiring roughly $5 billion in Bitcoin per quarter. In an upside scenario, Bitcoin would climb to $175,000, a 40% increase from its prior record, with acquisitions exceeding $5 billion quarterly.
The downside scenario is more sobering. Bitcoin might fall to $25,000 by the end of 2026 and acquisitions will be suspended due to market conditions or loss of capital market access.
Related: MicroStrategy breaks into Nasdaq 100, amplifying Bitcoin’s reach
TD Cowen was candid about what could derail the thesis. The analysts highlighted Strategy’s high correlation to Bitcoin’s price as a key risk, alongside the possibility that the premium embedded in its share price could erode.
Regulatory or political developments tied to corporate Bitcoin holdings also made the list, as did operational risks around custody, including the potential loss of private keys.
The note also extended coverage to four smaller digital asset treasury firms, such as Sharplink (Nasdaq: SBET), Strive (Nasdaq: ASST), Nakamoto Holdings (Nasdaq: NAKA), and the United Kingdom-based The Smarter Web Company, assigning Buy ratings to each.
Strategy made its pivot from enterprise software to a Bitcoin treasury company in 2020 and has not looked back. The company currently holds 766,970 BTC, with its last purchase made as recently as April 6.
It carries a net debt of $5.94 billion and a market capitalization of $41.88 billion, according to TD Cowen’s figures.
At press time, Strategy’s mNAV, the ratio of its stock price to the net asset value of the Bitcoin it holds, sits at 1.10. This means the market is still willing to pay a premium above the underlying asset value.
