Americans looking for employment have one more thing to worry about: the workers who are holding onto their jobs with an iron grip.
People’s willingness to leave their jobs is widely seen as a barometer of confidence in the labor market. And right now, that indicator is flashing red. The share of employees who quit their jobs in January was 2%, Labor Department data showed, and February survey data from the New York Federal Reserve showed workers’ perceived probability of leaving their job voluntarily in the next year hit a record low in data going back to 2013.
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“The probability of losing your job has not gone up all that much. But if you lose your job, the probability of finding a new one — that’s gotten harder, that’s gone down,” Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Yahoo Finance.
“It’s especially true in the sectors that have low hires and low quits rates,” she added, “where they’re just not seeing room made for new people.” Ullrich pointed to government, financial activities, and manufacturing, which all have a quits rates below 1.5%.
In an economy that’s hardly sustaining any payroll growth outside of the healthcare sector, and amid persistent fears of AI-induced layoffs, it only makes sense that those with jobs are treating them like precious jewels.
But that leaves those without them trapped between stagnant hiring and the anxious employed. There were just 0.94 jobs available for every unemployed person in January, compared to the roughly 2 positions open for each out-of-work American in the white-hot labor market of 2022.
A sign with information about employment is displayed during a job fair in Dallas, on Jan. 14, 2026. (AP Photo/LM Otero) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book hinted at the trend this month, with the Boston Fed reporting an increase in applicants, as well as “some experienced workers applying for junior-level positions.” The New York Fed also noted “labor supply generally continued to exceed labor demand,” while the Cleveland Fed found “increased availability of qualified candidates as larger firms slowed hiring.”
That intense competition for jobs, combined with workers’ reluctance to leave, gives employers the upper hand. Pay growth for job-switchers is slowing, according to data tracked by ADP, with the premium for job-hoppers hitting a record low in February in data dating back to 2020. That may only further incentivize staying put, since pay for job-stayers is steadier.
Taylor Bowley, an economist at the Bank of America Institute, also flagged this pattern in a March 3 note, writing that “the median pay raise associated with a job change has moderated for both men and women, with January’s level measuring less than half that of the 2019 average.”
“Looking ahead, if ‘low-hire, low-fire’ continues to characterize the labor market, the job‑change premium could compress further, limiting the extent to which workers can secure meaningful pay bumps by switching roles,” Bowley wrote.
Jasmine Escalera, a career expert at MyPerfectResume, said that an October survey by the employment assistance platform found 65% of workers planned not to look for a new job in 2026.
The question is whether that’s “because they’re satisfied, or is it because they’re terrified?” Escalera said. Signs point to the latter, at least for some.
“We’re seeing that people take a long time to find jobs,” Escalera said. “And it isn’t about qualifications or skillsets — it’s about the competition in the market. For the job-seekers, this is really sad, actually.”
Indeed, long-term unemployment is creeping up, with a quarter of out-of-work Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as of February. Anyone watching that trend who still has a job — no matter how bad it is — might be a bit skittish about jumping ship.
Lauren Thomas, an economist at Deel, a human resources company, said that seems particularly true for workers under 24, who in 2024 had the highest rate of job-hopping. Now, she said, they’re typically staying where they are and have experienced the sharpest drop in job-switching among other age groups.
Their anxiety isn’t without reason. Just in New York City, long a place where young job-seekers flock, entry-level postings plummeted more than 37% between 2022 and 2024, according to a recent report from the Center for an Urban Future. If you’re early in your career, looking for a new job might force you into the most troubled job market in years.
“There’s good reason for people to quit their jobs, whether it’s to move to a position with better opportunity, or better pay, or to change sectors, or to move to a new town,” Ullrich said. “When the churn is taken out of the labor market, and layoff rates are low — which they are — what happens is you don’t have opportunities for new people to enter.”
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