
“One Battle After Another” isn’t just one of the year’s top Oscar contenders — it’s an apt phrase to describe this remarkably unpredictable awards season.
Despite the scandal surrounding “Emilia Perez” star Karla Sofia Gascon, last year’s Oscar race was largely cut-and-dry. This season, however, has featured the classic industry politicking that’s made it tough for awards prognosticators when it comes to most of the high-profile categories.
The lone exception is “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley, whom most pundits agree will (deservedly!) take home the Best Actress trophy, after she dodged an absurd last-minute hate train because she doesn’t like cats enough. Yes, I’m serious. And no, I won’t elaborate, because it’s too stupid.
The race between Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has divided the top awards experts, whose predictions have struggled to yield a consensus — Variety’s Clayton Davis predicts a “Sinners” sweep, while The Post’s Johnny Oleksinski is betting on “One Battle.”
Others say the two will split wins throughout the night.
“One Battle After Another” started strong with major wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, PGAs and DGAs, while “Sinners” has surged recently with a victory at the Actor Awards, a record-breaking 16 Oscar noms and a BAFTA scandal that engendered goodwill towards its cast, particularly Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo, both of whom are nominated.
Coogler could make history as the first-ever Black winner of the Best Director trophy (a sobering statistic in the year 2026).
Meanwhile, Anderson has previously earned eleven Oscar nods and lost every time. Either way, Warner Bros. comes out on top — an especially ironic outcome as the studio, which had an unprecedented hot streak in the last year, is being sold down the river to Paramount. Guess this is its swan song?
The back-and-forth surrounding the top two films may be a boon for supporting actress nominee Amy Madigan, who took the Critics Choice and Actor Award for her work as Aunt Gladys in “Weapons.” While Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) and Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) have been strong performers this season, Madigan — the sole nominee from her film — could benefit from a house divided.
It’s curious that Leonardo DiCaprio, who delivers a career-best performance as “Ghetto Pat” in “One Battle,” has flown largely under the radar this season. Instead, Michael B. Jordan and “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet have duked it out, leading pundits to question if Academy voters will reward a long-loved actor in dual roles or a young buck who’s already scored a handful of nods at just 30.
(Chalamet’s recent comments about ballet and opera, for which he is under fire despite it being blown wildly out of proportion, went viral after Oscar voting closed.)
The supporting actor race is anyone’s game. (Personally, I’m still mad that young “Hamnet” star Jacobi Jupe isn’t in the mix.) Sean Penn has emerged as a late-game frontrunner, but Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”) and Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) still have momentum.
And then there’s the beloved Lindo, who nabbed an Oscar nod despite being left out of nearly every previous awards lineup. He could pull through on the basis that he’s long-overdue for this recognition.
Penn likely won’t be at Sunday’s ceremony, but one thing’s for sure, if he does show up and win, we’re all but certain to hear a political statement.








